Experiment 144

“F1.2 decided at key lengths 13 and 16 with design 2 on two free alphabets: K4 against 12 copies of itself that keep the known places”

F1.2 at 13 and 16. 0143 measured design 2 on two free alphabets (Quagmire IV): planted English beat all five of its kept-place copies 5 of 5 times at 13 and 4 of 5 at 16 (bar 4); length 8 did not finish. Here K4 runs at 13 and 16 against 12 copies of K4 made the same way (carved letters kept at the 24 known places, the other 73 shuffled), from K4's own exact witness (0123's decider).

revertedstatus
experiment 143parents
14 mintime, all phases
0candidates
0/24known letters
unclocked
1

The experiment method

What the method does with the 24 known letters.

With two scrambled alphabets, one for the messagethe message The 97 letters of English that Jim Sanborn wrote and enciphered. and one for the carved lettersthe carved letters The 97 letters cut into the copper at the CIA, shown at the top of every experiment page., the search noticed planted English nearly every time at key lengths 13 and 16. Now it runs on the carved text at those lengths, against copies of the carved text that keep the letters at the 24 known places and scramble the rest.

Words in the margin are defined on the glossary page.

1.1

The method at work

The carved letters go in at the top; the reading comes out at the bottom.

OBKRUOXOGHULBSOLIFBBWEASTNORTHEASTOTWTQSJQSSEKZZWATJKLUDIAWINFBBERLINCLOCKWGDKZXTJCDIGKUHUAUEKCARIN: THE COPPER, ALL 97 LETTERS, THE 24 KNOWN PLACES IN ACCENTtwo unknown alphabets (message and carved), key length 13 or 16: K4 and 12 copies keeping the carved letters at the known places, the same search on eachbest English score of all 97 letters; K4 would usually come first if it were English enciphered this way (0143)key length 13-5.5-5.0-4.5-4.0K4 -5.12K4 rank 13 of 13key length 16-5.5-5.0-4.5-4.0K4 -4.67K4 rank 7 of 13OUT: NO READING; K4 LAST OF 13 AT LENGTH 13 AND SEVENTH AT 16EASTNORTHEASTBERLINCLOCK
the idea

With two scrambled alphabets, design 2 noticed planted English against copies of itself 5 times in 5 at length 13 and 4 in 5 at 16 (0143). The same comparison is now made for the carved text.

the check

12 copies of K4 keep its carved letters at the 24 known places and shuffle the other 73; one exact pair of alphabets fits them all and starts every search.

the bound

K4 ranks 13 of 13 at length 13 and 7 of 13 at 16: both lengths closed at the measured strength.

2

Best candidate against the known letters

This experiment produced no candidate: the search ruled everything out before a full text was built. Its product is the bounded negative in section 7.

3

Walkthrough, by hand

Redo the method on a few letters with pencil and paper.

  1. Find one pair of alphabets that gives K4's 24 known letters at key length 13.
  2. Make 12 copies of K4 that keep the carved letters at the known places and shuffle the other 73; the same pair of alphabets fits them.
  3. Run the search from that pair on K4 and on each copy, keeping the checks, scoring the whole text as English.
  4. K4 anywhere inside the pack closes the length at the measured strength. Repeat at 16.
the worksheet: the first steps by hand, on squared paper
TWO ALPHABETS: K4 AND ITS COPIES, BEST SCORES IN ORDER, LENGTHS 13 AND 16lengthrankbest scoretext131-4.804copy132-4.843copy133-4.852copy1313-5.116K4161-4.602copy162-4.625copy163-4.631copy167-4.669K41613-4.766copyShown: the three best texts, K4 and the last ateach length. K4 is last at 13 and in the middle at16.Planted English came first against its own copies9 times in 10 at these lengths: a true messagewould most likely have led.
4

Worked example, generated

The same steps run by the code on the real letters.

key length 23, Beaufort form: K4 in rows of 23; each column is one key slot

  O B K R U O X O G H U L B S O L I F B B W F L
  R V Q Q P R N G K S S O T W T Q S J Q S S E K
  Z Z W A T J K L U D I A W I N F B N Y P V T T
  M Z F P K W G D K Z X T J C D I G K U H U A U
  E K C A R

the seven checks every move keeps (place(carved) + place(known) equal within a column):
  column 0: R+S (24) = M+C (70)
  column 1: V+T (25) = Z+L (71)
  column 2: Q+N (26) = F+O (72)
  column 3: Q+O (27) = P+C (73)
  column 4: P+R (28) = K+K (74)
  column 21: F+E (22) = T+I (68)
  column 22: L+A (23) = T+N (69)
5

Hypothesis, for a cryptanalyst

Family, key space, the constraint under test, and the clues it reads.

C27(c), C1(b). Model: 0123's Quagmire IV, C(c) = P(p) + k[i mod L], two unknown bijections, L 13 (11 checks) and 16 (8 checks); 0123 found K4 consistent at both. Search: 0143's compiled tempering over both alphabets, 10 runs x 16 replicas x 625 rounds x 1,000 moves per text, start from an exact witness randomised by 400 check-keeping swaps. Copies: K4's carved letters kept at the 24 known places, the other 73 shuffled (seed 144); they share K4's witness. Rule fixed before the run: K4 above all 12 copies at a length stops the queue for replication; otherwise that length closes, sampled at the power measured in 0143 (5/5 at 13, 4/5 at 16, against 5 copies).

6

Prediction

Written before the run; the result decides it.

K4 inside its copies at both lengths; F1.2 at 13 and 16 closes sampled. No reading.

7

Method

  1. K4's exact witness at 13 and at 16 (0123's decider); 12 kept-place copies of K4 per length.
  2. The compiled two-alphabet search on all 26 texts.
  3. K4's rank per length; its best reading per length returned with the copies' scores as controls.
8

Result and bounds

The harness's record: candidates, gates, loss, and the negative result this experiment leaves behind.

0candidates returned
0passed every gate
0/24known letters, best
–lowest loss
nonechampion before

L13: K4 -5.116 rank 13 of 13; L16: K4 -4.669 rank 7 of 13; stop False

What was searched, as the harness recorded it.

family
two free alphabets (Quagmire IV), key length 13 and 16, no move: K4 against 12 kept-place copies of itself (design 2)
search
parallel tempering, 10 runs x 16 replicas x 625 rounds x 1000 moves per text; start from K4's exact witness (0123) randomised by 400 check-keeping swaps
not exhaustive
yes
runs done
min
10
max
10
texts with no finished run
0
c decryption checked
yes
by length
13
k4
score
-5.116
plaintext
DBUGHHPROLEITEDREOFVIEASTNORTHEASTLYOWNENWASINENOHWCITAFFMYSBURBERLINCLOCKOBAYGUIORYFAKELYUSFUMWO
english free
-5.416
runs
10
copies
-5.034, -5.006, -4.985, -4.976, -4.958, -4.957, -4.935, -4.922, -4.917, -4.852, -4.843, -4.804
k4 rank of 13
13
k4 above all copies
no
16
k4
score
-4.669
plaintext
KDOWBOOFGOLPREATINCEREASTNORTHEASTYIRTIDONTTOSTENEETSBEIPHYAVAMBERLINCLOCKYWASTILINGLDPREVELOSINP
english free
-4.874
runs
10
copies
-4.766, -4.728, -4.711, -4.71, -4.705, -4.7, -4.65, -4.645, -4.634, -4.631, -4.625, -4.602
k4 rank of 13
7
k4 above all copies
no
stop queue
no
power measured 0143
13
5 of 5 against 5 kept-place copies
16
4 of 5
controls
12 kept-place copies of K4 per length (seed 144)

How this experiment sits among the others is on the lineage page; its family's open hypotheses are on the families page.

Rendered from the record on 2026-10-18 12:26 UTC; updated after every experiment.
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