Families
Where we believe the method is
Every hypothesis the search holds, from one root through the families to the single tests. Each leaf is open, closed, blocked or noted, with the strength of the test and the experiments behind it. Families appear in the order they are worked; click a branch to fold it, a number to open the experiment.
▸We believe the solution is present within these families4 open, 32 blocked, 8 noted, 139 closed
▸Excluded by the known letters alone, before any search4 closed
- Pure transposition: the known letters need three Es, the copper has twoclosed · exact · 51
- One substitution alphabet: the same carved letter stands for different known lettersclosed · exact
- Rotor machines: K encrypts to K, S to Sclosed · exact
- Systems with 25 or fewer symbols (Playfair, bifid, ADFGVX): K4 uses all 26 lettersclosed · exact · 52
▸1stFamily 1: One keyed stage, no move4 open, 12 blocked, 4 noted, 38 closed
▸A repeating key on the table3 open, 3 blocked, 1 noted, 8 closed
- Standard or KRYPTOS alphabets, key lengths 1-26 and 30-52closed · exact · 5
▸Key lengths 27-29 and 53+ on alphabets from the puzzle's words; the completed key reads as noise1 blocked, 1 closed
- Lengths 27-29 and 53: a planted text is told from its copies (C-F1-2, C-F1-2b)closed · sampled · 34 35 48 53
- Lengths above 53: a planted text at 80 is not told from its copies (C-F1-2d); 0136's boundblocked · sampled · 34
- Alphabets from any dictionary word, key lengths 1-26closed · exact · 109
- Alphabets one swap or move from KRYPTOSclosed · exact · 71
▸F1.1 One alphabet in an unknown order on both sides (Quagmire III), key lengths 3-26; Beaufort 23 and 26 rerun against 100 own copies with MIX8m and the judge (F1.12): K4 inside on all three2 open, 1 blocked, 2 closed
- Added form (Quagmire III proper, and variant Beaufort), lengths 1-26: S under S and K under K force key 0 in slots another known letter sharesclosed · exact · 119
- Beaufort form, lengths 1-22, 24, 25: no alphabet fitsclosed · exact · 119
- Beaufort form, length 23 (7 checks): design 2 (F1.5) puts K4 9th of 13 among copies of itself; planted texts beat all their own copies 6 of 8 (0139, again 0228), Sanborn-style plants 10 of 12 (0226), 6 of 12 (0228), 16 of 24 (0229): pooled 32 of 48, under the bar; clean pooled 33 of 40: reopenedopen · sampled · 119 120 139 140 226 228 229
- Beaufort form, length 26 (1 check): K4 12th of 13 among copies of itself; power 5 of 6 (0140), redrawn 13 of 24 clean and 17 of 24 Sanborn-style (0229), under the bar: reopenedopen · sampled · 119 140 142 229
- Masked messages at the sampled lengths (A6.3): reversed found 7 of 8; an X every kth letter 5 of 8, the message in every nth place 3 of 8, under the 6 of 8 bar: not decidedblocked · sampled · 227
▸F1.2 Two alphabets in unknown orders (Quagmire IV), key lengths 3-26; length 13 power remeasured on 48 plants (D1b: 16/24 clean, 16/24 Sanborn-style at ten runs) and rerun against 100 own copies (F1.12): K4 last by quadgrams, inside on all readers1 open, 1 blocked, 1 noted, 2 closed
- Lengths 1-7, 9-12, 14, 15, 17, 18, 21, 22, 25: no pair of alphabets fitsclosed · exact · 123
- Lengths 8, 16: design 2 on two alphabets puts K4 2nd and 7th of 13 among kept-place copies; power 4/4, 4/5 on clean Carterclosed · sampled · 143 145 146
- Length 13: K4 13th of 13 (0144), power 5/5 on clean Carter (0143) but 9/12 on Sanborn-style plants, under the 4/5 bar (A6.2, 0226); a second draw 2/5 clean, 8/12 messy (0228): reopenedopen · sampled · 143 144 226 228
- Lengths 20, 23, 24, 26: above 0136's bound, only a better English model could decideblocked · exact · 123 136
- Length 19: a pair fits, 26 of 1,000 coppers do (R under P at 28 and 66, 38 apart)noted · exact · 123 124
- A progressive keyclosed · exact · 11 42 155
▸A self-feeding key (autokey)2 blocked, 3 closed
- Ciphertext autokey, any lag, on 1,092 keyword tablesclosed · exact · 2 25 64 118
- Plaintext autokey, lags 1-52closed · exact · 3 12
▸Plaintext autokey, lags 53-96: the known letters force too little2 blocked
- Lags 85-96: open bits above what 73 letters of English carry at Shannon's lowest entropy; no English test can decideblocked · exact · 136
- Lags 53-84: above the quadgram scorer's 130 bits; only a better English model could decideblocked · exact · 136
- Autokey plus a repeating keyclosed · exact · 66 67 73
▸A running key from a text3 closed
- K1-K3, the sculpture's texts, Carter, Sanborn's lettersclosed · exact · 4 17 21 45 47 78 98 117
- An unknown English text, on standard, KRYPTOS or puzzle-word alphabetsclosed · sampled · 9 10
- F1.3 An unknown English text, on any dictionary-word alphabet; Sanborn-style running keys found 12 of 12 by quadgrams and the judge (A6.2, 0226)closed · sampled · 125 226
▸A key schedule worked by hand1 open, 2 blocked, 3 closed
- The Berlin clock, the Carter datesclosed · exact · 79 38
▸F1.4 Other hand schedules (C20(c)-(e))next1 open, 2 blocked, 2 closed
- The tableau rows as repeating keys ("layer two", C20(d)): 6 of 24 known letters, coppers 5-8closed · exact · 126 128
- A key word stepped by skip, stutter, back and forth, triangle or square numbers, or restarted at each carved line, on standard or KRYPTOS tables: no setting fitsclosed · exact · 127 128
- The same rules on free alphabets: consistent at the coppers' rate; a decider exists (F1.5) but about 1,900 settings at 20-30 min each: blocked by costblocked · exact · 127 128
- K5 as the key (C20(e)): no textblocked
▸F1.5 A decider for cells the known letters cannot decide (the shared blocker of F1.1, F1.2, F1.4's free alphabets, autokey lags 53-96, F6.1, F6.2, F8): bound each cell by key bits against English redundancy, then a climb that passes 0120's power bar on planted texts (P6)2 noted, 3 closed
- Step 2, design 1 (check-keeping climb, compiled): plants beat K4's copies 10 of 12 but only 6 of 12 their own: power came from letter counts, failsclosed · sampled · 137 138
- Step 2, design 2 (parallel tempering in the check-keeping set): plants beat their own copies 6 of 8 at 23, 5 of 6 at 26, 4/4-5/5 with two alphabets; decides F1.1 and F1.2's cellsclosed · sampled · 139 140 143 145
- Design 2 against its budget (D1): one full run matches ten at 23, nothing under nine at 13; the ten-run power redrawn lower than recorded (messy 6/12 at 23, clean 2/5 at 13)noted · sampled · 228
- One free alphabet with 24 plants per class (D1): power does not rise with runs (L23 clean 21-23, Sanborn-style 14-16; L26 11-18, 11-17 over r = 1-10); strict rule not metnoted · sampled · 229
- Step 1, the bound: the quadgram scorer extracts 1.78 bits per letter (130 bits in 73 letters); one free alphabet at every length, two to 16 (14 with a move), Hill with any key decidable in principle; two alphabets from 19 (15 with a move) and autokey 53-84 only with a better model; autokey 85-96 by noneclosed · exact · 136
▸F1.6 One carved letter wrong, missing or extra, through the exact unknown-alphabet tests4 closed
- One and two free alphabets, periodic, 604 variants: at the coppers' rateclosed · exact · 147
- K1/K2's system revived at length 19 by a slip at 33: decider power 3 of 5, K4 7th of 13: sampled at power 3/5 (D3)closed · sampled · 148
- Gromark (all free-alphabet rules and bases), 605 variants: no fitclosed · exact · 150
- Trifid and Hill, every single-letter error anywhere (5,044): no cube; Hill at the coppers' rateclosed · exact · 151 152
▸F1.7 Autokey on one unknown alphabet, with no move, then after each move1 blocked, 2 closed
- No move: dead lags closed; fitting lags at the coppers' rateclosed · exact · 149
- Fitting cells (130 under full chain equations; 3 of 0149's dead) judged by English against fitting copies and 10 stand-ins: K4 p 0.64; plants 12/48 (F1.13, a rerun with a better climb, blocked: no decider found, 2026-11-04)closed · weak · 256
- The move-first version: blocked by costblocked
▸F1.8 Carter's book as a running key on an unknown alphabet1 blocked, 1 closed
- One alphabet, every offset both ways: no fit on K4 or copiesclosed · exact · 154
- Two alphabets, any running key: almost no checks; undecidable by the known lettersblocked · exact · 154
▸F1.9 The per-letter progressive key; its periods 26-30 against coppers1 noted
- Period 34 (K4 40 and 20 consistent pairs against copy maxima 10 and 7), inside the fixed statisticnoted · exact · 155
- F1.10 Friedman's keyword-only key-advance schedulesclosed · exact · 156
- F1.11 A split key phrase: one part mixes the plain alphabet, the other the cipher alphabetclosed · exact · 157
▸A1.2 One, two or three of the 24 known letters slipped (A1, Stage 2 step 2), periodic key1 blocked, 3 closed
- The sculpture's tables, lengths 1-26: nothing fits K4 below 25 even with 3 slips; 24-26 fit everywhere; the judge puts K4's best reading at 3 against the copies' 8closed · exact · 207
- One free alphabet: dead at 1-7 and 9 with up to 3 slips; plants at 7 foundclosed · exact · 208
- Two free alphabets: dead at 1-3 and 9 with up to 3 slips; plants at 3 and 9 foundclosed · exact · 209
- Free-alphabet lengths where K4 and the copies fit with 2-3 slips (one alphabet 8, 10-26; two 4-8, 10-26): too short to decide k slips, the reading undeterminedblocked · exact · 208 209
▸A1.3 Running keys from the named texts with slips at the known places1 blocked, 2 closed
- K1-K3, the sculpture's texts, Carter, Sanborn's letters on standard, KRYPTOS and keyword tables, up to 7 slips: no setting on K4 or any copyclosed · exact · 210
- The sculpture's texts and Carter plus a constant shift, with or without every type-1 move, up to 3 slips: noneclosed · exact · 211
- On a free alphabet (0098, 0154): one slip lets hundreds of settings fit on every copy, reading undetermined: too short to decide k slipsblocked
▸A1.4 Autokeys and progressive keys with slips or one lost step2 closed
- Ciphertext autokey on 487,734 table setups, 2 slips or a lost step: nothing below lag 68; progressive key, 2 slips: nothing below period 25closed · exact · 212
- Plaintext autokey, lags 1-52, 2 broken links or a lost step: nothing below lag 24; lags 26-29 read blind as copiesclosed · exact · 213
▸A1.5 A move, then the table, with two slips1 blocked, 1 closed
- 0110-0114's routes and the type-1 library (1.85M landings), 8 tables, keys 1-26: shortest fit 18 after, 16 before, as copies; readings judged as copies'closed · exact · 214
- A free alphabet after a move with slips (0129): fits at the copies' rate from length 6 without slips; too short to decide k slipsblocked
▸2ndFamily 6: A move, then the table4 blocked, 2 noted, 34 closed
▸One move, then a repeating key on standard, KRYPTOS or word alphabets6 closed
- Columnar (plain, keyed, double, Myszkowski, AMSCO), rail fenceclosed · exact · 6 26 58 84 85 110 111 112 113 114
- K3's rule, quarter turns, grid paths, the ? as a 98th symbolclosed · exact · 8 41 82 83 86 99
- Key on both sides of the move, the same table both sidesclosed · exact · 80
- F6.22 AMSCO at key length 23: above the coppers in 0114; against 200 fresh shuffles K4 21, 4 of 200 at or above (p 0.025, 0.075 over three lengths), no forced key a named passageclosed · exact · 114 0263; chased in F6.22b
- F6.22b The forced period-23 keys read for English against the shuffles'closed · sampled, plants 20/20 · 0264 (flawed score) 0265: K4's best key -11.9 bits below random; p 0.03 on more settings; chased in F6.22c
- F6.22c The same against a count-matched nullclosed · sampled · 0266: p 0.06 per setting p 0.84
- One move with an autokey, running key or clock scheduleclosed · exact · 63 81 90 91
- One carved letter wrong, missing or extra, through every moveclosed · exact · 93 94
▸Three stages3 closed
- Three clockwise quarter turns, every widthclosed · exact · 83
▸F6.3 Mixed three-stage routes2 closed
- Four column readings (turn either way, rows-then-columns-down, its reverse), every pair at widths 2-96 and every triple at 2-24: nothing live below key length 20closed · exact · 134
- F6.3b Mixed triples at widths 25-96: 105.5 million routes, nothing live below 18, at the coppers' rateclosed · exact · 37 158
▸Alphabets in unknown orders after or before a move2 blocked, 1 noted, 2 closed
▸F6.1 One unknown alphabet (Quagmire III)1 blocked, 1 closed
- Every type-1 move, either order, added or Beaufort form, key lengths 1-5: no alphabet fitsclosed · exact · 129 130
- Lengths 6-26: settings fit at the scrambled-copper rate; only an English climb could judge them (0120)blocked · exact · 129 130
▸F6.2 Two unknown alphabets (Quagmire IV)1 blocked, 1 noted, 1 closed
- Every type-1 move, either order, key lengths 1-2 (and 3 with the table first): no pair fitsclosed · exact · 133
- The rest: fits at the scrambled-copper rate (exact to 10, per-slot above); only an English climb could judgeblocked · exact · 133
- Move first, key length 3: K4 at the top of its coppers in 0097, 0100, 0133; p 0.04-0.10 (0102)noted · exact · 100 102 133
▸F6.4 Padding at each grid stage; nulls dropped between grids1 closed
- Blanks in any of eight places per grid, dropped or kept as dummies, one stage (widths 2-96) or two (2-48), periodic key 1-26 on standard/KRYPTOS tables: nothing live below 21closed · exact · 135
- F6.5 Direction words as routes through the grid ("east, then northeast"), then the tableclosed · exact · 159
- F6.6 Move, change, move again (844-move library, all pairs)closed · exact · 160
- F6.7 Change, move, change on two different tablesclosed · exact · 161
- F6.8 Three-stage routes with a keyword columnar stageclosed · exact · 162
- F6.9 Both autokeys with 0084's width-7 double columnar routesclosed · exact · 163
- F6.10 Blank cells chosen by a key, then the tableclosed · exact · 165
- F6.11 Keyword-disrupted and triangle columnar transpositions, then the tableclosed · exact · 164
- F6.12 EVA's double triangle transposition, then the tableclosed · exact · 166
- F6.13 Chiffre XIII's keyword-shaped five-row mask, then its period-5 table (parametric masks; the documented rule not in hand)closed · exact · 166
- F6.14 Nihilist transposition on a 10 x 10 square with three blanksclosed · exact · 167
- F6.15 YAR's "1-2-3" spacing as an ordering, then the tableclosed · exact · 166
- F6.16 Interrupted-key columnar transposition, then the tableclosed · exact · 164
- F6.17 Trapezoid transposition, then the tableclosed · exact · 164
- F6.18 Letters reshuffled inside each row at widths other than 7, then the tableclosed · exact · 165
- F6.19 The French diagonal method, then the table (key-named diagonals)closed · exact · 165
▸F6.20 A 10x10 turning grille (Fleissner), then or before the table2 blocked, 2 closed
- Copied out by rows, every card, free keys 1-6 and 200,563 key words: no card fitsclosed · exact · 199
- Copied out by columns, every card, free keys 1-4 and the key words: no card fitsclosed · exact · 200 201
- Free keys of 7-26 letters (rows) and 5-26 (columns): 10^8-10^9 nodes per settingblocked · exact · 199 201
- Fixed stencils (the Abwehr's 13x19 card): no rule for the holesblocked
▸F6.21 A deliberate slip in a keyword columnar (one column out of place, or two swapped), then the table1 noted, 3 closed
- Around the dictionary keyword columnar, the same word twice, the interrupted key: at the copies' rateclosed · exact · 202
- Around the trapezoid and the poem code: at the copies' rateclosed · exact · 203
- Around the row reshuffle: 6 cells above every copy (0203), 1 against 40 fresh copies (0204): chanceclosed · exact · 203 204
- A21 of the row reshuffle, carried by rows of 9noted · exact · 204
▸3rdFamily 12: Stein's way: look, quantify, then crib4 blocked, 3 closed
- F12.1 The 97 letters and the "?" checked against images of the copperblocked
- F12.2 K4's statistics by segment and width against shuffles; a planted period-7 key is not seen (C-F12.2)blocked · sampled · 168
- F12.3 Stein's I.C. peak at 13 in K1 and K2: real or chanceclosed · sampled · 169
- F12.4 A pencil session: every pattern noted before any code; planted patterns not seen (C-F12.4)blocked · sampled · 170
- F12.5 Parts with their own keys, split where the statistics breakclosed · exact · 171
- F12.6 Probable words through the cells the known letters cannot decide; a plant scores below its copies (C-F12.6)blocked · exact · 172
- F12.7 Stein's K1-K3 method as such: column shifts scored by log frequencies, then a cribclosed · by subsumption · 5
▸4thFamily 3: A two-part key with a combiner11 closed
- Two words added: both from the puzzle, or one from the dictionaryclosed · exact · 14 43 59 115
- A word plus digits from the storyclosed · exact · 24 38
- A word plus the misspelt or raised lettersclosed · exact · 61
- A column word plus a row keyclosed · exact · 87 88
- F3.1 Combiners other than additionclosed · exact · 173 174
- F3.2 Number keys from the Morse and the plate layoutclosed · exact · 175
- F3.3 Direction words as numbers: the bearing 67.5, compass points 6 of 32 and 3 of 16closed · exact · 176
- F3.4 Three or more stacked tables (Scheidt's patent, "triple matrixes")closed · exact · 177
- F3.5 The misspelt letters' positions as indices, and their orientationclosed · exact · 178
- F3.6 The Weltzeituhr's rotating ring as an offset over 26 lettersclosed · exact · 179
- F3.7 "Point" as a decimal point, a place or a punctuation markclosed · exact · 180
▸5thFamily 2: Masked plaintext, then a keyed stage1 blocked, 7 closed
- Masks that move or pad letters: reversal, nulls, doublets as nullsclosed · exact · 23 57 75
- Masks that change letters: affine, Atbashclosed · exact · 74
- The message written along a grid pathclosed · exact · 92
- F2.1 Fragments from 0057's letter strike-outs at key lengths 24-25 not yet matched against wordsclosed · exact · 181
- F2.2 Nulls placed by a ruleclosed · exact · 182
- F2.3 A plain component with repeated letters: homophones that keep the lengthclosed · exact · 183
- F2.4 Nulls at both ends of the message (SOE's Dutch section): periodic and progressive keys on the moved known wordsclosed · exact · 23 205
- A code layer, phonetic spelling, another language: these change the known letters or need a codebookblocked
▸6thFamily 4: Sanborn's visual systems1 blocked, 7 closed
- Trifid, any cube, periods 2-15closed · exact · 40
- The plates as a key by position, straight or foldedclosed · exact · 89
- K4 read from behind the screenclosed · exact · 108
- F4.1 A route that follows the plates' physical layoutclosed · exact · 184
- F4.2 Free trifid cubes at periods above 15closed · exact · 185
- F4.3 The physical anomalies' positions as a keyclosed · exact · 186
- F4.4 The extra L and HILL as a marker matching YARclosed · by subsumption · 5 17 89
- F4.5 Antipodes' plate order and spelling differencesblocked
▸7thFamily 10: Alphabets that change after every letter1 blocked, 2 closed
- F10.1 Chaocipher: two wheels permuted after every letter (1918, disclosed 2010)closed · exact · 187
- F10.2 Wheatstone cryptograph or Alberti disk advanced by the plaintextclosed · exact · 188
- F10.3 A key stream from a deck of cards (Solitaire, Mirdek)blocked
▸8thFamily 11: Agency hand systems, now public1 blocked, 4 closed
- F11.1 Strip ciphers and cylinders with published alphabets (M-94, Jefferson wheel, M-138-A)closed · exact · 189
- F11.2 Poem code: double transposition keyed by words from a memorized text, then the tableclosed · exact · 190
- F11.3 The CIA's Polish key box: a key text transposed in a box, then the tableclosed · exact · 191
- F11.4 Friedman's keyed alphabet box as the key streamclosed · exact · 192
- F11.5 Poem code with five words picked anywhere in K1-K3, two passes, then the table: 8.1 x 10^17 key pairs, no constraint cuts itblocked
▸9thFamily 8: Hill ciphers1 blocked, 2 closed
- Hill 2-5, plain and affine, 330 numberings, chained, with a repeating keyclosed · exact · 15 36 44 55 105 116
- F8.1 Hill with an unknown letter numbering: count the equations firstclosed · exact · 194
- Settings with too few equations to decide (5x5 affine; long keys with 4x4)blocked · exact · 105 116
▸10thFamily 5: Gromark and number feedback4 closed
- Two- and three-term rules, bases 2-26 (three-term free alphabet in base 10 only)closed · exact · 13 28 46 54 69 76 107
- F5.1 Multiplicative feedback; the raised YAR as primerclosed · exact · 196
- F5.2 Three-term Gromark on a free alphabet in other basesclosed · exact · 195 0262 (the rules left for cost: base 26 three-term lag 6 lag 7 in bases 2-16 two-term lags to 8 base 10 to 10; 2.34 x 10^11 primers nothing fits K4)
- F5.3 Rules in bases 16-26 on 0054's K1-K3-word alphabet pairs (0054 stopped at 15)closed · exact · 206
▸11thFamily 9: Substitution, then a move1 blocked, 2 closed
- One-to-one substitution, then any of the 1.86M built routesclosed · exact · 19 106
- Routes outside every built set: unbounded without a list of hand methodsblocked
- F9.1 A bounded list of hand transpositions outside the built sets, then one-to-one substitutionclosed · exact · 197 198
▸Family 7: Construction simulation (a check on the others, not a cipher)1 noted, 1 closed
- K4's two patterns, doublets lining up in sevens and repeats 21 apart, are realnoted · sampled · 56
- No construction tried makes both patternsclosed · sampled · 18 27 62 65 96
▸Family 13: Ciphertext only: the known words sealed until a reading wins (a way of working across families, issue #85)5 blocked, 1 noted, 10 closed
- F13.1 Which families 97 letters of English can decide with no known letter: key bits against the judge's reach (reports/f13-solvability-map.md)closed · exact
- F13.2 The cipher type named from the ciphertext's statistics, power measured first: held-out accuracy 0.28 (chance 0.06), the flat families near chance against random letters; K4 names no family against its shuffles; the one cell under the line (ciphertext autokey) not replicatedclosed · sampled · 231 232
- F13.3 A stronger English judge: bits per letter it extracts on held-out English: quadgrams 1.75, n-grams without Carter mixed with them 1.95 (189 bits in 97), with Carter 2.38; the judge passes 4-letter soup, not 6-letter soup or word saladclosed · measured · 233
▸F13.4 Ciphertext-only solves in the families F13.1 leaves decidable3 blocked, 1 noted, 6 closed
▸F13.4a Periodic key on the sculpture's 8 table classes, lengths 1-36: K4 inside 200 climbed shuffles (p 0.62); plants found to length 26 (6/8), not at 30-361 closed
- Lengths 27-36: plants 5/8 at 30, 2/8 at 36; K4 never above all 200 shuffles: sampled at that power (D3)closed · sampled · 234
▸F13.4b Periodic key on 2.08 million dictionary keyword tables, lengths 1-26: K4 inside 100 climbed shuffles (p 0.66); plants found at 5 only (8/8; 4/8 at 10)1 closed
- Lengths 6-26: the per-column frequency screen loses the true table (plants 0-4/8); K4 never above all 100 shuffles: sampled at that power (D3)closed · sampled · 235
▸F13.4c One free alphabet with a periodic key, lengths 1-19, both forms: plants found to 5 (7/8); K4 inside 50 climbed shuffles there (p 0.37)1 closed
- Lengths 6-19: plants 2-5/8; K4 inside 100 fresh shuffles climbed the same way (p 0.84), no cell above all 100 (D3)closed · sampled · 236 258
▸F13.4d 27,852 moves before or after the sculpture's tables, lengths 1-20: plants found to 121 noted, 2 closed
- K4 above its shuffles at table-then-move, key length 2 (p 0.0099, replicated p 0.023 against 300 fresh); reading junk, 3 of 24 known letters; the judge at the edge of chance (14 of 300 at or above)noted · sampled · 237 238 239
- Lengths 13-20 sampled at power 1-6/8, K4 never above all shuffles (D3); F6.1 (a free alphabet after a move) blocked by 0236's powerclosed · sampled · 237 238 236
- The replicated excess at B2 (table with a two-letter key, then a move): K4 above 999 of 1,000 fresh shuffles, also without width-19 moves (p 0.004); readings junk, 3 of 24 known letters; F13.4i (0260): planted B2 messages keep their excess under every rotation, K4 under 3 of 96: not a message under this cipher, a property of K4's exact order against the searchclosed · sampled · 237 238 239 259 260
▸F13.4e Hill 2x2 and 3x3, four numberings, every alignment, ciphertext only: 2x2 plants read 8/8, K4 inside 100 shuffles (p 0.73)1 blocked, 1 closed
- Hill 3x3: plants found 4/8; K4 inside 100 shuffles: sampled at that power (D3)closed · sampled · 240
- Gromark (cost: 10^5 primers x 364 rules x a free-alphabet climb, about 8 h per text); trifid (0039's annealer fails even with the known letters); M-94 (25! disc orders, beyond 0236's ciphertext-only frontier)blocked
▸F13.4f A puzzle word plus a dictionary word added (0115's space), ciphertext only: 26,040 puzzle-word settings x 2,241,060 dictionary rotations per text, exhaustive per-column screen; plants read exactly 32/32 at 5, 10, 15, 20; K4 inside 100 shuffles (p 0.42)1 blocked
- Two key-word alphabets plus a key word (F14.1's space): about 4.3 x 10^10 alphabet pairs per text, beyond any screen, and 0235's screen already lost one dictionary table among 2 million beyond length 5blocked
- F13.4g Chaocipher, two free wheels: given the left wheel the reading is a simple substitution of an index stream, but annealing the left wheel finds wrong wheels above the true one (stream IC 0.070-0.073 against 0.058-0.068, 3 plants); 97 letters do not single out the wheelblocked · desk probe
- F13.5 Memorable keys from the named sources, scored by English alone: key words, keyword tables, running keys from 36 named texts, autokey primers, keyword columnars; plants found 40/40, K4 inside 100 shuffles (p 0.099)closed · sampled · 243
- F13.6 A13's structure battery on every reading, not only 24-of-24 ones: the readings are chosen by English, so masks that break English never reach it (every nth 0/4, affine 0/4, columns 1/4) and those that keep it are already found (X every kth, nulls 4/4)blocked · desk probe
- F13.7 The object: the copper's letters, the ?, the line breaks, Antipodes' K4; needs the photographs (#81)blocked
▸Family 14: Scheidt's mask, keyed by words: the blocked free-alphabet cells, shrunk by his "key word/s" (issue #93)1 blocked, 7 closed
▸F14.1 Two dictionary key-word alphabets plus a key word: all 4.3 x 10^10 pairs per form matched exactly, key lengths 1-24; no key word on K4 or any shuffle, pairs only where the shuffles have them; plants 12/12; K4's count at 16 replicated, p 0.009, not a flag1 blocked
- Key lengths 25-26: no dictionary word that long; 10^6-10^9 pairs fit by chanceblocked
- F14.2 A remembered route plus key-word alphabets in F6.1 and F6.2's cellsclosed for 96.9% of settings · exact · 0271: no key word on K4 or any of 50 shuffles plants 12/12; 41 986 settings unverified by a listing flaw open for F14.2a
- F14.3 Duress reading: a running key with the message and the key both English; 0125's 3.7 million forced keys ranked by MIX8m, read by the judge: plants 20/20, K4 inside 50 shuffles (p 0.59)closed · sampled · 246
- F14.4 How firm is letter for letter (A2)? The 2010 Times wording ties carved 64-69 to BERLIN, three dinner accounts say one-to-one, the 2019 retreat refuses more without contradicting; A2 stands, length-changing digit systems stay outclosed · by reading
- F14.5 Scheidt's '98 characters': F14.1 with one carved letter lost, the 23 places that change anything: no key word on K4 in any; plants 23/23closed · exact · 247
▸F14.6 Mix and match, up to three steps from K1-K3's operations: 11 canonical forms, 7 closed and cited, 4 run (reports/f14.6-grammar.md)3 closed
- F14.6a Three puzzle words summed; a puzzle keyword table with a puzzle word plus a dictionary word: nothing fits K4 or its shuffles; plants 16/16closed · exact · 248
- F14.6b Puzzle keyword alphabets around a move, key word of any length: 2.47 x 10^9 settings, exact; no key word on K4 or any shuffle; plants 8/8closed · exact · 249
- F14.6c A move, then a puzzle word plus a dictionary word summed: 1.45 x 10^9 settings, exact; no word on K4 or any shuffle; plants 8/8closed · exact · 250
- F14.7 Plaintext style as the mask, on the judge bench: the judge sees telegraphese (1.00) and abbreviated (0.97) English, not vowel-dropped (0.13); MIX8m and quadgrams see noneclosed · measured · 251
▸Family 15: K1-K3 as a guide to K4's content: the plaintext is Sanborn's own prose (#117), so model what it says, then use that as extra known plaintext (issue #118)3 closed
- F15.1 The content model, by reading: K1-K3's themes, voice and mechanics, every statement on K4's content, the layout the 24 letters fix; written as content hypotheses with predicted wordsclosed · by reading · `reports/f15.1-content-model.md`: seven hypotheses H1-H7
- F15.2 Drafts: hundreds of 97-letter texts in Sanborn's voice, one set per content hypothesis, the 24 letters in place, plus a held-out setclosed · 329 corpus drafts (Opus) + 28 held-out (Sonnet, another prompt) in `data/drafts/drafts.jsonl`
- F15.3 Power first: on planted drafts, do the other drafts help a search find the plant, beyond the 24 letters alone?closed · measured · 0268: English 18/24 drafts prior 16/24 (bar +4 not met)
- F15.4 Probable phrases at fixed places: phrases the drafts agree on, and K1-K3's own phrases ("comes back to the first part"), as extra cribs in the cells blocked for lack of checksclosed as weak by F15.3's rule (0268)
- F15.5 Each draft as a full crib with slip tolerance: the forced key read for structure, against copiesclosed as weak by F15.3's rule (0268)
- F15.6 Past readings rescored by closeness to the drafts' content, the judge kept blindclosed as weak by F15.3's rule (0268)
The ranking and each family's open items as tables are on Priorities; what each family has covered, finding by finding, is in the full record; key sources, dead ends and pivots each have their own page; how the experiments built on each other is on the lineage page.