Experiment 146

“F1.2 decided at key length 8 with design 2 on two free alphabets: K4 against 12 copies of itself that keep the known places”

F1.2 at 8, the last of F1.2's three cells under 0136's bound. 0145 measured design 2 on two free alphabets at length 8 (16 checks): planted English beat all four of its kept-place copies 4 times in 4. K4 now runs at 8 against 12 copies of K4 made the same way, from K4's exact witness, as 0144 did at 13 and 16.

revertedstatus
experiment 145parents
7 mintime, all phases
0candidates
0/24known letters
unclocked
1

The experiment method

What the method does with the 24 known letters.

With two scrambled alphabets, one for the messagethe message The 97 letters of English that Jim Sanborn wrote and enciphered. and one for the carved lettersthe carved letters The 97 letters cut into the copper at the CIA, shown at the top of every experiment page., the search noticed planted English every time at key length 8. Now it runs on the carved text at that length, against copies of the carved text that keep the letters at the 24 known places and scramble the rest.

Words in the margin are defined on the glossary page.

1.1

The method at work

The carved letters go in at the top; the reading comes out at the bottom.

OBKRUOXOGHULBSOLIFBBWEASTNORTHEASTOTWTQSJQSSEKZZWATJKLUDIAWINFBBERLINCLOCKWGDKZXTJCDIGKUHUAUEKCARIN: THE COPPER, ALL 97 LETTERS, THE 24 KNOWN PLACES IN ACCENTtwo unknown alphabets, key length 8 (16 checks): K4 and 12 copies keeping the carved letters at the known places, the same search on eachkey length 8-6.0-5.5-5.0-4.5K4 -5.34K4 rank 2 of 13OUT: NO READING; K4 SECOND OF 13 AT LENGTH 8, INSIDE ITS COPIESEASTNORTHEASTBERLINCLOCK
the idea

Design 2 on two scrambled alphabets noticed planted English at length 8 four times in four (0145). Now the carved text runs against copies of itself.

the check

12 copies keep K4's carved letters at the 24 known places and shuffle the rest; one exact pair of alphabets fits them all and starts every search.

the bound

K4 ranks 2 of 13: closed at the measured strength. With 0144, every two-alphabet length English can decide is decided.

2

Best candidate against the known letters

This experiment produced no candidate: the search ruled everything out before a full text was built. Its product is the bounded negative in section 7.

3

Walkthrough, by hand

Redo the method on a few letters with pencil and paper.

  1. Find one pair of alphabets that gives K4's 24 known letters at key length 8.
  2. Make 12 copies of K4 that keep the carved letters at the known places and shuffle the other 73; the same pair of alphabets fits them.
  3. Run the search from that pair on K4 and on each copy, keeping the checks, scoring the whole text as English.
  4. K4 anywhere inside the pack closes the length at the measured strength.
the worksheet: the first steps by hand, on squared paper
TWO ALPHABETS, KEY LENGTH 8: K4 AND ITS COPIES, BEST SCORES IN ORDERrankbest scoretext1-5.234copy2-5.339K43-5.353copy4-5.419copy5-5.436copy6-5.456copy7-5.468copy8-5.505copy9-5.508copy10-5.512copy11-5.519copy12-5.614copy13-5.718copyK4 comes second. A true two-alphabet message with an8-letter key would most likely have come first:planted ones beat all their copies 4 times in 4.
4

Worked example, generated

The same steps run by the code on the real letters.

key length 23, Beaufort form: K4 in rows of 23; each column is one key slot

  O B K R U O X O G H U L B S O L I F B B W F L
  R V Q Q P R N G K S S O T W T Q S J Q S S E K
  Z Z W A T J K L U D I A W I N F B N Y P V T T
  M Z F P K W G D K Z X T J C D I G K U H U A U
  E K C A R

the seven checks every move keeps (place(carved) + place(known) equal within a column):
  column 0: R+S (24) = M+C (70)
  column 1: V+T (25) = Z+L (71)
  column 2: Q+N (26) = F+O (72)
  column 3: Q+O (27) = P+C (73)
  column 4: P+R (28) = K+K (74)
  column 21: F+E (22) = T+I (68)
  column 22: L+A (23) = T+N (69)
5

Hypothesis, for a cryptanalyst

Family, key space, the constraint under test, and the clues it reads.

C27(c), C1(b). Model: 0123's Quagmire IV, C(c) = P(p) + k[i mod L], two unknown bijections, L 8 (16 checks); 0123 found K4 consistent at 8. Search: 0143's compiled tempering over both alphabets, 10 runs x 16 replicas x 625 rounds x 1,000 moves per text, start from an exact witness randomised by 400 check-keeping swaps. Copies: K4's carved letters kept at the 24 known places, the other 73 shuffled (seed 146); they share K4's witness. Rule fixed before the run: K4 above all 12 copies at a length stops the queue for replication; otherwise that length closes, sampled at the power measured in 0145 (4/4 against 4 copies).

6

Prediction

Written before the run; the result decides it.

K4 inside its copies; F1.2 at 8 closes sampled. No reading.

7

Method

  1. K4's exact witness at 8 (0123's decider); 12 kept-place copies of K4.
  2. The compiled two-alphabet search on all 26 texts.
  3. K4's rank per length; its best reading per length returned with the copies' scores as controls.
8

Result and bounds

The harness's record: candidates, gates, loss, and the negative result this experiment leaves behind.

0candidates returned
0passed every gate
0/24known letters, best
–lowest loss
nonechampion before

L8: K4 -5.339 rank 2 of 13; stop False

What was searched, as the harness recorded it.

family
two free alphabets (Quagmire IV), key length 8, no move: K4 against 12 kept-place copies of itself (design 2)
search
parallel tempering, 10 runs x 16 replicas x 625 rounds x 1000 moves per text; start from K4's exact witness (0123) randomised by 400 check-keeping swaps
not exhaustive
yes
runs done
min
10
max
10
texts with no finished run
0
c decryption checked
yes
by length
8
k4
score
-5.339
plaintext
ZEMYBMWDBURGHAPTGCWEDEASTNORTHEASTYIDWCKUNDTOFLYPSHAYKINGSADVERBERLINCLOCKAVEFLIVATQUODEMOGOOFGLA
english free
-5.713
runs
10
copies
-5.718, -5.614, -5.519, -5.512, -5.508, -5.505, -5.468, -5.456, -5.436, -5.419, -5.353, -5.234
k4 rank of 13
2
k4 above all copies
no
stop queue
no
power measured 0145
8
4 of 4 against 4 kept-place copies
controls
12 kept-place copies of K4 per length (seed 146)

How this experiment sits among the others is on the lineage page; its family's open hypotheses are on the families page.

Rendered from the record on 2026-10-18 12:26 UTC; updated after every experiment.
view on GitHub