Experiment 147

“F1.6: one carved letter wrong at a known place, or one letter missing or extra between the known runs, run through the exact tests for one and two unknown alphabets at every key length”

F1.6, first part. 0119 and 0123 decided one and two unknown alphabets with a periodic key exactly, on the copper as carved. K2 lost a letter and K1-K3 carry slips; F1.1's added form (K1 and K2's own system) dies only because S sits under S at 33 and K under K at 74. Here every single-letter error the exact tests can see is tried: each of the 24 carved letters at the known places replaced by each of the other 25 letters (600), and one letter missing or extra between the two known runs (4, the shift read on either side; an error before EAST or after CLOCK shifts every known place together and changes no periodic check, so it is the copper as carved). For each variant: one free alphabet, added and Beaufort forms, and two free alphabets, key lengths 1-26, decided exactly. Ten scrambled coppers get the same 604 variants.

revertedstatus
experiment 123parents
14 mintime, all phases
0candidates
0/24known letters
unclocked
1

The experiment method

What the method does with the 24 known letters.

The earlier messagesthe earlier messages The three solved parts of the sculpture. contain slips: a dropped letter, misspellings. If one carved letter of the fourth messagethe message The 97 letters of English that Jim Sanborn wrote and enciphered. is wrong, a cipher already ruled outdead Said of a period, grid or method when the known letters contradict it: no secret word of that kind can produce the carved letters. might have been ruled out unfairly. In particular K1 and K2's own method, with a scrambled alphabet, fails only because two carved letters equal the known lettersthe known letters Sanborn has confirmed that positions 22 to 34 of the message read EASTNORTHEAST and positions 64 to 74 read BERLINCLOCK. above them. We change each carved letter at the 24 known places to every other letter, and add or drop one letter between the two known words, and rerun the exact tests for one and two scrambled alphabets, on the carved textthe carved letters The 97 letters cut into the copper at the CIA, shown at the top of every experiment page. and on scrambled copies.

Words in the margin are defined on the glossary page.

1.1

The method at work

The carved letters go in at the top; the reading comes out at the bottom.

OBKRUOXOGHULBSOLIFBBWEASTNORTHEASTOTWTQSJQSSEKZZWATJKLUDIAWINFBBERLINCLOCKWGDKZXTJCDIGKUHUAUEKCARIN: THE COPPER, ALL 97 LETTERS, THE 24 KNOWN PLACES IN ACCENTone alphabet, added form (K1 and K2's system), key length 1-26: does any one-letter variant of K4 fit?151015192026no variant fitssome variant fitsfitting (variant, length) pairs on K4: 114one alphabet, Beaufort form, key length 1-26: does any one-letter variant of K4 fit?151015192026fitting (variant, length) pairs on K4: 1421two alphabets, key length 1-26: does any one-letter variant of K4 fit?151015192026fitting (variant, length) pairs on K4: 5097K4 above every copper in 2 of 78 cells (dots); each copper against the rest: 0-11. Inside chance.OUT: NO READING; ONE SLIP AT 33 REVIVES K1 AND K2'S SYSTEM AT LENGTH 19, CARRIED TO 0148EASTNORTHEASTBERLINCLOCK
the idea

K2 lost a letter; K1-K3 carry slips. If one carved letter of K4 is wrong, an exact test may have ruled a cipher out unfairly; K1 and K2's own system with a scrambled alphabet dies only on S under S at 33 and K under K at 74.

the check

Each carved letter at the 24 known places changed to each other letter, and one letter added or dropped between the known words: 604 variants, each decided exactly for one and two scrambled alphabets, key lengths 1-26, on K4 and 10 scrambled copies.

the bound

Fits at the copies' rate. One cell stands out by meaning: with the S at 33 changed to any other letter, K1 and K2's system fits at key length 19; 0148 judges it by English.

2

Best candidate against the known letters

This experiment produced no candidate: the search ruled everything out before a full text was built. Its product is the bounded negative in section 7.

3

Walkthrough, by hand

Redo the method on a few letters with pencil and paper.

  1. Take the carved S at place 33 and suppose Sanborn cut the wrong letter: try each of the other 25 letters there.
  2. With one scrambled alphabet on both sides and the key added (K1 and K2's method), write the 24 equations: place of carved letter = place of known letter + key value of its slot.
  3. A carved letter equal to its known letter forces key value 0 in its slot; with the S changed, place 33 no longer does.
  4. Decide, for every key length, whether any alphabet and key satisfy all 24 equations.
  5. Do the same for every other carved letter at a known place, for an added or dropped letter between the two known words, and on scrambled copies.
the worksheet: the first steps by hand, on squared paper
WHY K1 AND K2'S SYSTEM FAILS ON K4, AND WHAT ONE SLIP CHANGESplace / lengthcarvedknownconsequence33SSkey 0 in slot 33 mod L74KKkey 0 in slot 74 mod L-1933 = 14 mod 19shares a slot with 52 (no known letter) and 71 (L under Z)1974 = 17 mod 19shares with 55 and 36 (no known letters): key 0 is harmlessWith one alphabet and the key added, a letter enciphered as itself needs key value 0 in its slot. At length 19the slot of 33 also holds place 71 (L under Z), which cannot use key 0; change the carved S at 33 and theclash is gone, while 74's slot holds no other known letter.
4

Worked example, generated

The same steps run by the code on the real letters.

one alphabet on both sides, added form (K1 and K2's method): place(carved) = place(known) + key value of the slot

as carved: place 33 is S under S and place 74 is K under K, so their slots need key value 0;
at every key length 1-26 another known letter shares one of those slots and is not its own carved letter: dead.

variant: the carved S at 33 replaced by R (one slip of the chisel)
  place 33 no longer forces 0; the slot of 74 still does (K under K)
  the 24 equations are decided again at every key length, and the same for every other letter at every known place
5

Hypothesis, for a cryptanalyst

Family, key space, the constraint under test, and the clues it reads.

C17(a)/(b) and family G (knowledge/06-hypotheses.md: 'every family should be tested once more with one letter inserted or deleted at each position'), C27(c), C1(b); Scheidt 2005 (knowledge/sources/wired-2005-zetter-questions-for-kryptos-creator.txt): 'since he's the one who had the chisel in his hands, there could be some changes'. Models: 0119's one unknown bijection on both sides, added form x(c) = x(p) + k or Beaufort x(c) = k - x(p); 0123's two bijections C(c) = P(p) + k. Deciders: 0119's (CRT mod 13 and 2, exhaustive mod-13 enumeration) and 0123's, witness re-checked; node limit 20,000 for the two-alphabet search, undecided cases counted. Statistic fixed before the run: per model and length, the number of variants that fit; cells where K4's count is above every copper's, against each copper's count against the rest. Also reported: every variant that revives the added form on K4.

6

Prediction

Written before the run; the result decides it.

Changing the carved letter at 33 or 74 revives the added form at some lengths (it removes the self-encryption that kills it), on K4 as on the coppers' corresponding variants; overall fit counts per (model, length) sit inside the coppers' range, K4 above every copper in no more cells than the null's maximum. No reading; any revived cell joins F1.5's undecided cells for the English decider.

7

Method

  1. Build the 604 variants of K4 (and of each of 10 coppers): substitution at each known place, and the known runs pulled together or pushed apart by one.
  2. For each variant, model and key length 1-26: the 24 equations, decided exactly.
  3. Count fitting variants per (model, length) per text; compare K4 with the coppers; list K4's added-form fits.
8

Result and bounds

The harness's record: candidates, gates, loss, and the negative result this experiment leaves behind.

0candidates returned
0passed every gate
0/24known letters, best
–lowest loss
nonechampion before

K4 fitting (variant, length) pairs: {'1V': 114, '1B': 1421, '2': 5097}; added form revived on K4 in 114 pairs; K4 above every copper in 2 of 78 cells, null 0-11; stop False; undecided K4 {'1V': 0, '1B': 0, '2': 8}

What was searched, as the harness recorded it.

family
one carved letter wrong at a known place (600) or one letter missing/extra between the runs (4: two readings each), through the exact one- and two-free-alphabet periodic tests
models
1V
one alphabet, added form (Quagmire III, K1/K2's system)
1B
one alphabet, Beaufort form
2
two alphabets (Quagmire IV)
variants per text
604
key lengths
1, 26
k4 fitting variants by length
1V
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 25, 1, 2, 1, 26, 27, 2, 28
1B
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 27, 0, 91, 25, 24, 0, 0, 573, 27, 52, 601
2
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 534, 0, 52, 94, 100, 573, 3, 1, 586, 1, 100, 536, 578, 3, 97, 588, 594, 54, 602
controls min by length
1V
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 26, 28
1B
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 27, 27, 27
2
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 2, 51, 2, 51, 2, 2, 1, 2, 51, 1, 53, 54, 598, 602
controls max by length
1V
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 36, 295, 23, 0, 505, 534, 542, 552, 553, 26, 571, 3, 577, 23, 551, 553, 565, 577, 584, 593, 601
1B
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 17, 1, 0, 62, 45, 538, 552, 548, 26, 573, 4, 576, 510, 550, 548, 565, 577, 586, 593, 601
2
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 496, 526, 540, 0, 562, 572, 572, 579, 577, 52, 588, 4, 590, 534, 580, 577, 584, 589, 594, 598, 602
undecided
k4
1V
0
1B
0
2
8
controls
  1. 1V
    0
    1B
    0
    2
    2
  2. 1V
    0
    1B
    0
    2
    6
  3. 1V
    0
    1B
    0
    2
    0
  4. 1V
    0
    1B
    0
    2
    1
  5. 1V
    0
    1B
    11
    2
    0
  6. 1V
    1
    1B
    0
    2
    1
  7. 1V
    0
    1B
    0
    2
    1
  8. 1V
    0
    1B
    0
    2
    1
  9. 1V
    0
    1B
    0
    2
    8
  10. 1V
    0
    1B
    2
    2
    2
k4 added form fits
  1. variant
    sub 22 F->E
    length
    26
  2. variant
    sub 26 Q->N
    length
    24
  3. variant
    sub 28 P->R
    length
    23
  4. variant
    sub 33 S->A
    length
    19
  5. variant
    sub 33 S->B
    length
    19
  6. variant
    sub 33 S->C
    length
    19
  7. variant
    sub 33 S->D
    length
    19
  8. variant
    sub 33 S->E
    length
    19
  9. variant
    sub 33 S->F
    length
    19
  10. variant
    sub 33 S->G
    length
    19
  11. variant
    sub 33 S->H
    length
    19
  12. variant
    sub 33 S->I
    length
    19
and 102 more
k4 added form fit count
114
cells k4 above every copper
1V:19, 2:19
null cells above rest per copper
0, 9, 3, 2, 4, 11, 6, 0, 6, 3
stop queue
no
indel note
an error before place 22 or after 74 shifts every known place together and changes no periodic check
controls
10 shuffled coppers (seed 146), the same 604 variants each
exhaustive
exact per (variant, model, length); undecided counted

How this experiment sits among the others is on the lineage page; its family's open hypotheses are on the families page.

Rendered from the record on 2026-10-18 12:26 UTC; updated after every experiment.
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