Experiment 234

“F13.4a: a periodic key on the sculpture's 8 table classes, key lengths 1-36, solved from the ciphertext alone (quadgram climb, MIX8m rescoring), K4 against 200 climbed shuffles, plants at seven lengths”

F13.4a (issue #85), the first ciphertext-only solve. 0005 closed this cell exactly with the 24 known letters (lengths 1-26 and 30-52 dead on all 8 classes); here the known letters are not read. For each of the 8 classes (plain and cipher alphabets standard or KRYPTOS, added or Beaufort form; the key alphabet drops out) and each key length 1-36, a compiled coordinate-ascent climb on the shifts (30 restarts) maximizes the quadgram score; the 288 best readings are rescored by MIX8m, F13.3's out-of-domain model (1.95 bits per letter). Per length the best reading over the classes; the text's statistic is its largest z-score over the lengths against K4's 200 climbed shuffles. Plants (Carter's held-out last 20%, half with X stops, no known word) at lengths 5, 10, 15, 20, 26, 30 and 36, 8 each, each against 10 own climbed shuffles.

revertedstatus
experiment 233parents
5 mintime, all phases
36candidates
5/24known letters
1

The experiment method

What the method does with the 24 known letters.

The first two messages on the sculpture were made with its table and a repeating secret wordthe secret word The word or string a cipher needs besides the method.. If K4the carved letters The 97 letters cut into the copper at the CIA, shown at the top of every experiment page. were made the same way, a codebreaker could recover the word without knowing any of the messagethe message The 97 letters of English that Jim Sanborn wrote and enciphered., by trying every shift for each letter of the word and keeping the ones that make the text read best, as people did by hand a century ago. We do that for every word length up to 36 and for all eight ways of using the sculpture's two alphabetsthe sculpture's alphabet The alphabet reordered to begin with KRYPTOS: KRYPTOSABCDEFGHIJLMNQUVWXZ., never looking at the clue wordsthe known letters Sanborn has confirmed that positions 22 to 34 of the message read EASTNORTHEAST and positions 64 to 74 read BERLINCLOCK., and compare K4 with 200 shuffles of its own letters treated the same way. Hidden test messages tell us up to what length this can work.

Words in the margin are defined on the glossary page.

1.1

The method at work

The carved letters go in at the top; the reading comes out at the bottom.

OBKRUOXOGHULBSOLIFBBWEASTNORTHEASTOTWTQSJQSSEKZZWATJKLUDIAWINFBBERLINCLOCKWGDKZXTJCDIGKUHUAUEKCARkey lengths 1-36, all 8 ways of using the sculpture's table; no known letter read. Planted messages found against their own shuffles (6 of 8 decides a length):5: 8/810: 8/815: 8/820: 7/826: 6/830: 5/836: 2/8decidedtoo few letters per columnK4 at each length: above all but 5% of its 200 climbed shuffles? (36 lengths: about 2 expected by chance)15203236yesnoone statistic over all lengths: K4 2.147 at length 20, p 0.6169 (shuffles' median 2.31, max 5.383)MIMESONTENSNVSATOMCLEELERMUSTHGOESALAYNURTEDISLIOUTPMZUBORHENEVIONPORINTHASYTHEPHAUSEWANDAMESAMEFIN: THE COPPER, ALL 97 LETTERS, THE 24 KNOWN PLACES IN ACCENTOUT: K4'S BEST READING, AT LENGTH 20; THE KNOWN PLACES CHECKED BY THE HARNESS AFTER THE SEARCH
the idea

F13.4a: the sculpture's own table with a repeating key, solved from the carved letters alone, never looking at the clue words.

the check

Every length 1-36 and all 8 ways of using the table, climbed and rescored by the best English model; K4 against 200 shuffles of itself.

the bound

K4 sits inside its shuffles (p 0.6169). Planted messages are found to length 26, so 1-26 is closed without the known letters; 27-36 is too short to decide.

2

Experiment lineage

What this experiment was built on, from the lineage page: 11 experiments before it, back to the root of its line. Its number is in bold.

kept reverted, in its family's colour ×error or timeout reverted under today's rules built on a parent in the same family built on a parent in another family
3

Best candidate against the known letters

Laid out as the copper carries K4: OBKR ends the line that finishes K3, then three lines of 31. Left, as carved, the 24 known places in accent. Right, the candidate: a known place it gets right is an accent cell, one it misses is outlined. This is the candidate with most known letters right; none passed every gate.

in: the copper, always the same

as carved, 97 letters; the 24 known places in accent
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?OBKR
UOXOGHULBSOLIFBBWFLRVQQPRNGKSSO
TWTQSJQSSEKZZWATJKLUDIAWINFBNYP
VTTMZFPKWGDKZXTJCDIGKUHUAUEKCAR

OBKR ends the line that finishes K3, then three lines of 31

out: the candidate

every place read; known places in accent, misses outlined
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?AWTH
EARGEDIELFCFILEJANDANIISAHEALTT
ERTATPRESLHISCUOMASINDTRIDLETOC
KOUNSJCLUESFNATHUNTENTHTHEREVRK

checked: the known letters in place, and the reading turns back into the copper

4

How the score is made

The loss of the best candidate, part by part. Zero is solved.

Known letters missed19 of 24, ten points each190.00
Englishthe 73 free letters score -4.98; English text scores -3.61.38
Key111 bits to write it down (key words are cheap, arbitrary letters 4.7 bits each); each 60 beyond 60 costs a point0.86
Lossof 240, the worst possible192.24 80.1%
5

Walkthrough, by hand

Redo the method on a few letters with pencil and paper.

  1. Guess a key length, say 7, and write the carved letters in 7 columns.
  2. Pick one of the eight ways of using the sculpture's table.
  3. For column 1 try all 26 shifts and keep the one that makes the whole text read best; then column 2, and so on, going round until nothing improves.
  4. Start again from a few random keys and keep the best reading.
  5. Do it for every length up to 36 and every way of using the table, and compare K4's best with the best that shuffles of K4's letters reach.
the worksheet: the first steps by hand, on squared paper
key lengthfoundread exactlyshuffles at or above K458/88/88108/88/8107158/87/873207/80/87266/80/862305/80/816362/80/8176Found: the plant's statistic above all 10 of its own shuffles (chance 1 in 11). K4's best reading at 20:MIMESONTENSNVSATOMCLEELERMUSTHGOESALAYNURTEDISLIOUTPMZUBORHENEVIONPORINTHASYTHEPHAUSEWANDAMESAMEFPLANTED MESSAGES BY KEY LENGTH, AND K4 AMONG ITS 200 SHUFFLES
6

Worked example, generated

The same steps run by the code on the real letters.

The same climb on K1's 63 carved letters, key length 10, the KRYPTOS table, no known letter:

  shifts found  PALIMPSEST
  reading       BETWEENSUBTLESHADINGANDTHEABSENCEOFLIGHTLIESTHENUANCEOFIQLUSION

On K4 the climb runs for every length 1-36 and all 8 ways of using the table, and K4's best is compared with
the best that 200 shuffles of K4's letters reach.
7

Hypothesis, for a cryptanalyst

Family, key space, the constraint under test, and the clues it reads.

F1 with the sculpture's tables (K1, K2: Quagmire III on KRYPTOS with PALIMPSEST and ABSCISSA; 01-facts.md) is the first family in rank; C8(a), C27(c), C28. Every verdict on it rests on the known letters sitting at 22-34 and 64-74 of the final text, letter for letter (A2) and without slips (A1). F13.1 (reports/f13-solvability-map.md) puts a periodic key on a fixed table decidable by English alone to length 36 (125 bits at 26, under the 173 the quadgram scorer carries; 189 with MIX8m, 0233). The classic hand method (Stein; Friedman's Military Cryptanalysis) is exactly this: one shift per column, chosen by how well the decryption reads. Pre-registered: one statistic per text, S = max over L of (best MIX8m log-probability at L minus the shuffles' mean at L) / their sd; K4 flags at p < 0.05 against 200 shuffles (one test). Power per planted length: found when S is above all 10 own copies' S (null 1/11); a length is decided when at least 6 of its 8 plants are found (0120's bar as used by A6.2). The item closes for the lengths decided and is blocked above, by the measured power.

8

Prediction

Written before the run; the result decides it.

Plants found 8 of 8 at lengths 5-15, most at 20, falling to a few at 30-36 (columns of 2-3 letters): decided to about 20-26. K4's statistic inside its shuffles (p above 0.05), its best readings English-like junk with no known letter in place beyond chance (the harness's gate 2 on the 36 submitted readings: at most 3 of 24). So F13.4a closes for the decided lengths and is blocked above them.

9

Method

  1. Texts: K4; 200 shuffles of K4; 56 plants (lengths 5, 10, 15, 20, 26, 30, 36; 8 each, 4 clean and 4 with X stops; random class and shifts) and 10 shuffles of each plant: 817 texts.
  2. Per text, per class (8) and length (1-36): coordinate ascent on the shifts, 30 random restarts, each pass trying all 26 shifts of every column in random order, scored by the harness's quadgram table.
  3. The 288 best readings rescored by MIX8m (0233: KN8 on the manuals mixed with the quadgram table, weight 0.55); per length the best over classes.
  4. z per length against K4's shuffles; S = the largest z; K4 ranked among its shuffles; each plant among its own copies.
  5. K4's best reading at each length submitted as a candidate (key: class and shifts), so the harness checks the known letters only after the search; gate 4's controls are the shuffles' best readings, scored as the harness scores.
10

Result and bounds

The harness's record: candidates, gates, loss, and the negative result this experiment leaves behind.

36candidates returned
0passed every gate
5/24known letters, best
80.1%lowest loss
nonechampion before

All 36 candidates, lowest loss first.

1failed at cribs5/24 known lettersloss 80.1%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?AWTH
EARGEDIELFCFILEJANDANIISAHEALTT
ERTATPRESLHISCUOMASINDTRIDLETOC
KOUNSJCLUESFNATHUNTENTHTHEREVRK

2failed at cribs4/24 known lettersloss 84.3%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?KAIN
TOITEACNARDPHISESOVETOOLNATYLIS
ALTOAGAUGEANGSBEYOCLOCHAPPLANUR
EILINTMILBETHANYOUTKILIZTREADYO

3failed at cribs4/24 known lettersloss 84.7%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?MESS
AMAWHNSOJTUJLNCHUITSBOTXSTENATU
RZBRYHTATKICHXGRMSMABLIXOLIJOEN
YBUSXIXLCEGSADRMKEOENCIAYXMLIYU

4failed at cribs3/24 known lettersloss 88.4%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?MIME
SONTENSNVSATOMCLEELERMUSTHGOESA
LAYNURTEDISLIOUTPMZUBORHENEVION
PORINTHASYTHEPHAUSEWANDAMESAMEF

5failed at cribs3/24 known lettersloss 88.4%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?FMEE
TORENCOCEENTERCROMAVENGOVEREFRO
NMALMATERMGLAMSAYOURTHENTHSANSF
CONDCROSSSEAREINLAYFOLSONTEESHM

6failed at cribs3/24 known lettersloss 88.5%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?ESWO
CFHTMYREPGOFOWEVEMAPVEQQITWOFQB
REEDUPECTSAINWRADHREYORTCAMRHBN
SRLSIACKTARAIMDAFXWNJJNFDISASVA

7failed at cribs3/24 known lettersloss 88.6%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?WWAS
SMUCBNCGRTMJFTWHEABSTONDMTOFITM
RTHLYRLITCIWNRGBEAMSBFOROVAROWN
SHOSHAFLUEAYUDBESEGEHICAIPULAYO

8failed at cribs3/24 known lettersloss 88.6%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?INDI
CALEASOUTHOFCOUSEELYREESEASTHMI
NIMHAVEIMPEIRLANDTELLHADEBTEALB
EINGTRIBESRATINSUSIAEDALITERYOF

9failed at cribs3/24 known lettersloss 88.7%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?USHA
PONWHICHTATRISIGNALHOULDSARALID
ORKKNESEARINGREWOORBYMEELDISTEM
POTALSOFANYINITYHEASMENLAONDOLM

10failed at cribs3/24 known lettersloss 88.8%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?FIUP
FSPLUSOISHADEDMINCEYENSETTEEOFF
ERSETHANKERJASTTHERLACEFIRNATTH
EDESTANNOTRESPOREWEEEVELUSTTHIT

11failed at cribs3/24 known lettersloss 88.9%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?EINA
OYSDNCCGXXIGLEYWPEMATKGCBPWHAXI
OPWGSJKESUSTZPJDIIOCULJAJFEYERR
BOSTTNDSAMVSTRSARULDNTMVPTUSRXB

12failed at cribs3/24 known lettersloss 89.0%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?RYWM
AIDINBAFHNRFUSHYCSXMBLPJTHNEONR
QCQPNVLONLEFKCRSDWFATURCCKSHHEJ
BQSGFSYECAJEFXSDITUAWUQUGULEIRT

13failed at cribs3/24 known lettersloss 89.0%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?EHSH
ADQRYTAAXODBURXHMYXGMPFFTCPWHIR
INSFIVFIOKAFUNGISWALJTWCTDMWDEE
MSICFRFWMPJSVDISIZONSLQJWAKAIVH

14failed at cribs2/24 known lettersloss 92.6%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?WCAZ
DAPFCCONKAFITHGINARPHURRJUMAYRI
SIORTOVEGAUCRIBEHINKLEYALEGILLO
REKGCHURTEZYTOKENFAHANPWFYAUNCN

15failed at cribs2/24 known lettersloss 92.7%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?NUAR
EYITVTRILEFOKHARDESEWHOMEXCOUNT
IESDUNDHAIRTANDCINTHSCICESCANNE
RDANTHMIDDALSALSTHASCLAHARPCUTI

16failed at cribs2/24 known lettersloss 93.0%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?GCAR
EWSSQHECJAFLOTJCTFANTURPLEURGSU
VOORSSFHAMKILOBEJJCPEVAGARGINMU
TOEMITERTGKMAZEJZYWHAUTGIVMKZZC

17failed at cribs1/24 known lettersloss 96.7%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?TASE
WVADORTHAMAALMATICHHWLXXXPOFISD
OINGSSHZINITGUTUSBOTOTLICHMAIDL
CEONSOVIESEYJUBBROTOFTKNLKGAPBA

18failed at cribs1/24 known lettersloss 96.7%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?RART
LYCRYUNIQLAPEECENCYWERMRGTIFYOS
ANROYORTTWERENSONVHSSTHUGOWDOXY
WAKIDBMAUEVERDKIDGEDELPYONWEENW

19failed at cribs1/24 known lettersloss 96.7%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?TIMM
UTSFONSNCESAUTHATTBRUYRUSTIREAU
DIDNGBESONALTBCOURARYUSTADFARCU
RISNTGNSINCALITILLAMEWIKBELMISB

20failed at cribs1/24 known lettersloss 96.7%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?MIDM
ROOWWIJBONSEIDIURCLIDGREHABOLSM
APONSAYITTAMUATTHREPAIREYOURATT
OTRTSAMKNOTLONGEGWIERNCRALMADPH

21failed at cribs1/24 known lettersloss 96.7%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?EIMM
ICHOLLSTRIESPAYSIXGTORIMITONTBA
SARAINRDLANEIIPKIRTHERJUTLYTLYY
OLOPLEINGRYDOAWOKERDMXVNOINOMHB

22failed at cribs1/24 known lettersloss 96.8%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?ASTH
ASDAYNUNVESOUNTSAPEDFMUTILLLOJO
RIDDCFLYSTALEADASDHLTIBOVIKAHHA
BGATENCHAYMECHELAKITERVDONNINTA

23failed at cribs1/24 known lettersloss 96.8%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?NNLP
UPPOMHSTSREAFOVBEINTSARESWEREXE
TTSEVERBROXYMACTEDHALSADROICEHO
OSRDYCEANELLOMTERUGHUNNULSSTARK

24failed at cribs1/24 known lettersloss 96.8%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?PGID
FELMONAPEASALAYENASSAUCAHADCTOS
PEEFRELYISOHERNESTINIUMSWORDIZZ
MUHREDBYNKACEDENLUTIFULLYINVANC

25failed at cribs1/24 known lettersloss 96.8%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?ERED
TOSPHYFERGEFANTANGLESACTATPAIMA
SWORTABLISATRESSALLHASMARTORDSB
UTONAWADMUTERFLITEITHETYJANASUD

26failed at cribs1/24 known lettersloss 96.9%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?WOND
ICASBESSORGIONNAMENMARGEWEIGGOO
DBARNEPARASUSTBEADYBEMARICREMBE
CALAYEDAUNDOYLEARCHBANDCUMBERAT

27failed at cribs1/24 known lettersloss 96.9%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?SYOD
YIRYFLRPNWIFSEFYARPLPAPTORSOMMY
SAQUENKMCDOWDIENDUKYAMMACHPARVT
HXNGJETHASHETHSNZHUKEORTERIWGUL

28failed at cribs1/24 known lettersloss 96.9%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?ASET
HEYSLADVAPPEDFAZASPRIVANDMAWFIN
EANSPIRAMSLOWARENTLEAROWUAYSOCI
ETZWHOLLYTHELAGINAREEARLOFIDMEW

29failed at cribs1/24 known lettersloss 96.9%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?SENI
TEDASNAHAPNLARONGTORSISPASTOFOR
EDUCIFICCORICAIDGEREWANCARMEMAI
LMENONLECORICKINGTHISESONEEUPFI

30failed at cribs1/24 known lettersloss 97.0%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?ESSH
HBLERMQMOCEWLPROMTWONINFIUNIPAD
FLYUPWUDBUIDHMCDJIMMORACKJRAWFP
NOCWLYPIFKOJIBENTORRSQUMBUPSSYF

31failed at cribs1/24 known lettersloss 97.1%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?AILA
RTSONSELETSOPINGAYINDATOREDATST
USEFFMIAPLEITTURNANAISTOBASHESO
MERENCYAIMGOTHEUSELANSORMTOMATI

32failed at cribs1/24 known lettersloss 97.4%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?DAIH
NDKDVUNRACDRTWAALWRHMOOFHPVICCD
ELEOCSOCCXIJJLBESIRNYTBLTPWAPGF
MEEQJWFILVYIJKESZYTVINUNBNXIZBH

33failed at cribs0/24 known lettersloss 100.9%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?BWEN
THNORTSIFROMAWLOTUNDSUSISLUNTHS
PGLONGWAYTOPNOMARNISNEWSTAKINCB
SKITUSENCANTEREDNGRRETAREYTHESM

34failed at cribs0/24 known lettersloss 100.9%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?ILIX
ILLIENIGRETHATTGAFIMPFGPBYPUVEP
AGOFECCWLRTTMTCONNAOFROMUTUBETH
WSVWSCHATPUMTUSSAYSWASYTYCHIGCH

35failed at cribs0/24 known lettersloss 100.9%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?TSIN
ANCCHACIESDOMEMBERSTDIELNYVEDAR
LOAGENRYKEHEAPOSAIDASTERBADEFAA
TWILGRESEBUILDMUGEBURRATESDECOG

36failed at cribs0/24 known lettersloss 101.0%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?SEDI
FSTZAGRSVERTINFEANDCATUSKEROODI
STAKEMYSAINDHOLYMOONUTESTHEYUSB
YBTUDITSORINDAMANHERETEBUGHSCIV

K4 statistic 2.15 at length 20, p 0.617 against 200 shuffles; plant power L5 8/8, L10 8/8, L15 8/8, L20 7/8, L26 6/8, L30 5/8, L36 2/8; decided lengths [5, 10, 15, 20, 26]

What was searched, as the harness recorded it.

item
F13.4a
search reads known letters
no
classes
std/std/vig, std/std/beau, std/kry/vig, std/kry/beau, kry/std/vig, kry/std/beau, kry/kry/vig, kry/kry/beau
key lengths
1, 36
restarts
30
climb
coordinate ascent on the shifts, quadgram table; best per (class, length) rescored by MIX8m (0233)
texts
817
k4 copies
200
k4 statistic
2.147
k4 best length
20
k4 p
0.617
copies statistic max
5.383
copies statistic median
2.31
k4 rank per length copies at or above
1
136
2
194
3
179
4
51
5
8
6
77
7
11
8
156
9
168
10
107
11
61
12
122
13
38
14
43
15
73
16
126
17
168
18
137
19
138
20
7
21
53
22
27
23
135
24
175
25
38
26
62
27
76
28
17
29
18
30
16
31
83
32
8
33
94
34
140
35
14
36
176
plant power
5
8, 8
10
8, 8
15
8, 8
20
7, 8
26
6, 8
30
5, 8
36
2, 8
plant exact recovery
5
8, 8
10
8, 8
15
7, 8
20
0, 8
26
0, 8
30
0, 8
36
0, 8
decided lengths at 6 of 8
5, 10, 15, 20, 26
k4 best readings
20
MIMESONTENSNVSATOMCLEELERMUSTHGOESALAYNURTEDISLIOUTPMZUBORHENEVIONPORINTHASYTHEPHAUSEWANDAMESAMEF
7
ESSHHBLERMQMOCEWLPROMTWONINFIUNIPADFLYUPWUDBUIDHMCDJIMMORACKJRAWFPNOCWLYPIFKOJIBENTORRSQUMBUPSSYF
10
WWASSMUCBNCGRTMJFTWHEABSTONDMTOFITMRTHLYRLITCIWNRGBEAMSBFOROVAROWNSHOSHAFLUEAYUDBESEGEHICAIPULAYO
exhaustive
no
compute seconds
91

How this experiment sits among the others is on the lineage page; its family's open hypotheses are on the families page.

Rendered from the record on 2026-11-05 17:14 UTC; updated after every experiment.
view on GitHub