Experiment 239

“F13.4d follow-up: 0238's replicated cell (table, then a move, key length 2) regenerated for K4 and its 300 shuffles and judged blind: words, or statistics of the carved order?”

0237 flagged K4 at table-then-move, key length 2 (p 0.0099 against 100 shuffles) and 0238 replicated it (p 0.023 against 300 fresh shuffles; in that cell 1 of 300 at or above). K4's reading there is junk with 3 of 24 known letters in place; its move reads the carved text down a width-19 grid. Here 0238's search is rerun with the same seeds for lengths 1-2 only, which reproduces the length-2 readings exactly, and K4's and the 300 shuffles' best B2 readings go to the blind judge in one call (F13.3: the judge reads the survivors).

revertedstatus
experiment 238parents
13 mintime, all phases
4candidates
4/24known letters
1

The experiment method

What the method does with the 24 known letters.

K4the carved letters The 97 letters cut into the copper at the CIA, shown at the top of every experiment page. really did score better than its shuffles in one setting, twice. But the scorer counts letter patterns, not words, and K4's letters are known to sit in slightly unusual patterns. So we show K4's reading and the 300 shuffles' readings to the language-model judge, blind, and ask whether any of them contains English words.

Words in the margin are defined on the glossary page.

1.1

The method at work

The carved letters go in at the top; the reading comes out at the bottom.

OBKRUOXOGHULBSOLIFBBWEASTNORTHEASTOTWTQSJQSSEKZZWATJKLUDIAWINFBBERLINCLOCKWGDKZXTJCDIGKUHUAUEKCARthe replicated cell (table, then a move, key length 2): K4's best reading and those of its 300 shuffles, judged blind for English words (0-100)the judge reads K4's: N BEND ? AND ? FILL ? ? CULL ? SIDE ? MED ? ? GROW DO ? ? ? ? ATK4 12; shuffles median 4, max 15; 14 of 300 at or above K4 (the rule: 15 or fewer)1020150300tens of shuffles holding one at or above K4's scorebelow K4word-level by the rule, at its edge (about 1 in 20), every score in the judge's 'short words, likely chance' band; 3 of 24 known letters in any orderNBENDJZERANDBCKNFILLBAADWRONNWIIHLGARTNRHHKORCULLHCNCSIDEPXMEDFCKRHALORKYXQTRGROWDOJOWSMSHDVNLYATIN: THE COPPER, ALL 97 LETTERS, THE 24 KNOWN PLACES IN ACCENTOUT: K4'S B2 READING (TWO TURNS CW 70,19 INVERSE); 3 OF 24 KNOWN LETTERS IN PLACE
the idea

Is 0237-0238's replicated excess words, or the texture of K4's carved letters?

the check

The same readings regenerated for K4 and 300 shuffles and judged blind in one call.

the bound

K4 12, 14 shuffles at or above (max 15): words at the edge of chance, the known letters out of place. A lead for A2, not a solution.

2

Experiment lineage

What this experiment was built on, from the lineage page: 14 experiments before it, back to the root of its line. Its number is in bold.

kept reverted, in its family's colour ×error or timeout reverted under today's rules built on a parent in the same family built on a parent in another family
3

Best candidate against the known letters

Laid out as the copper carries K4: OBKR ends the line that finishes K3, then three lines of 31. Left, as carved, the 24 known places in accent. Right, the candidate: a known place it gets right is an accent cell, one it misses is outlined. This is the candidate with most known letters right; none passed every gate.

in: the copper, always the same

as carved, 97 letters; the 24 known places in accent
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?OBKR
UOXOGHULBSOLIFBBWFLRVQQPRNGKSSO
TWTQSJQSSEKZZWATJKLUDIAWINFBNYP
VTTMZFPKWGDKZXTJCDIGKUHUAUEKCAR

OBKR ends the line that finishes K3, then three lines of 31

out: the candidate

every place read; known places in accent, misses outlined
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?LDFC
TSBAMCWZEIEDAYSHEEATINQLLVRDJEW
INKWORNYDFCHUTVISMNBULOOBLNVCON
TRYCFXPAIXHIWCJIPZADKJVBPREJIHG

checked: the known letters in place, and the reading turns back into the copper

4

How the score is made

The loss of the best candidate, part by part. Zero is solved.

Known letters missed20 of 24, ten points each200.00
Englishthe 73 free letters score -6.99; English text scores -3.63.39
Key669 bits to write it down (key words are cheap, arbitrary letters 4.7 bits each); each 60 beyond 60 costs a point10.15
Lossof 240, the worst possible213.54 89.0%
5

Walkthrough, by hand

Redo the method on a few letters with pencil and paper.

  1. Rebuild the same readings as before for K4 and its 300 shuffles.
  2. Show all 301, one at a time and unlabelled, to the judge, who scores how much reads as English.
  3. If K4's reading is not among the top 5%, the excess was letter texture, not words.
the worksheet: the first steps by hand, on squared paper
textjudge scoreshuffles at or aboveK41214shuffles, median4-shuffles, max15-K4's reading as the judge splits it: N BEND ? AND ? FILL ? ? CULL ? SIDE ? MED ? ? GROW DO ? ? ? ? ATTHE REPLICATED CELL JUDGED BLIND
6

Worked example, generated

The same steps run by the code on the real letters.

Order A on a planted message: K3's rule with step 7 (letter i goes to place 7i mod 97), then the KRYPTOS table with SHADOW:

  message   THEHOTAIRESCAPINGFROMTHECHAMBERCAUSEDTHEFLAMETOFLICKERBUTPRESENTLYDETAILSOFTHEROOMWITHINEMERGEDTH
  carved    DPILCFDYKUWKWYMWSBAQVXLSDZFPDXGNGVJRECNUCIGSGRXELPEUQRLIBXISWIQUJRSJFUESQZLIISQZBUWRGUNMCQQLZRKTU
  undone    THEHOTAIRESCAPINGFROMTHECHAMBERCAUSEDTHEFLAMETOFLICKERBUTPRESENTLYDETAILSOFTHEROOMWITHINEMERGEDTH

The search tries all 27,852 moves in both orders, every length 1-20 and the 8 ways of using the table.
7

Hypothesis, for a cryptanalyst

Family, key space, the constraint under test, and the clues it reads.

The excess is measured by MIX8m, a letter n-gram model; K4's carved order is known to be non-random at widths 7 and 21 (0056: corrected p 0.005 and 0.010), and a move that reads it at width 19 can turn such structure into n-gram-friendly letter pairs without any words. If the judge, which reads for words in order and ignores n-gram texture (reports/judge-bench.md: it beats 4-gram soup, 0233), puts K4's reading above all but 5% of the shuffles' readings, the excess is word-level: a lead for A2 (the known letters defined on an intermediate text). Otherwise it is recorded as one more statistic of the carved order and F13.4d closes on 0237's power. Pre-registered: word-level when K4's judge score has at most 15 of 300 shuffles at or above it; None counts as 0.

8

Prediction

Written before the run; the result decides it.

The judge scores K4's reading low (under 20) and inside the shuffles' (most 0-20): not word-level. F13.4d closed for lengths 1-12 with the B2 excess written down as a statistic of the carved order.

9

Method

  1. 0238's attack with lengths 1-2 only (seeds unchanged, so the length-2 screens and climbs are identical).
  2. K4's and each shuffle's best reading at B2.
  3. All 301 to the judge in one call, blind; K4's rank.
10

Result and bounds

The harness's record: candidates, gates, loss, and the negative result this experiment leaves behind.

4candidates returned
0passed every gate
4/24known letters, best
89.0%lowest loss
nonechampion before

All 4 candidates, lowest loss first.

1failed at cribs4/24 known lettersloss 89.0%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?LDFC
TSBAMCWZEIEDAYSHEEATINQLLVRDJEW
INKWORNYDFCHUTVISMNBULOOBLNVCON
TRYCFXPAIXHIWCJIPZADKJVBPREJIHG

2failed at cribs4/24 known lettersloss 89.0%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?LDFC
TSBAMCWZEIEDAYSHEEATINQLLVRDJEW
INKWORNYDFCHUTVISMNBULOOBLNVCON
TRYCFXPAIXHIWCJIPZADKJVBPREJIHG

3failed at cribs3/24 known lettersloss 93.0%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?NBEN
DJZERANDBCKNFILLBAADWRONNWIIHLG
ARTNRHHKORCULLHCNCSIDEPXMEDFCKR
HALORKYXQTRGROWDOJOWSMSHDVNLYAT

4failed at cribs2/24 known lettersloss 97.3%
ECDMRIPFEIMEHNLSSTTRTVDOHW?HASC
IPLYNELEDMLOPNEPPDEKWSIXOROHWFM
JWSDAFREYTJORNTCUEJDUFNRMLZIPER
UKIYUZPHXWILSHKESTLYQBVUSHOWGYF

judge: K4's B2 reading 12, shuffles at or above 14 of 300 (max 15): WORD-LEVEL; K4 statistic 4.62 at B2, p 0.007 against 300 shuffles; plant power ; decided lengths []

What was searched, as the harness recorded it.

item
F13.4d
search reads known letters
no
moves
27,852
orders
A move-then-table, B table-then-move
classes
std/std/vig, std/std/beau, std/kry/vig, std/kry/beau, kry/std/vig, kry/std/beau, kry/kry/vig, kry/kry/beau
key lengths
1, 2
screen
per-column letter-frequency shifts, every move scored by quadgrams; 30 best per order and length
climb
coordinate ascent, move held, screen's shifts and 5 random starts; MIX8m rescoring
texts
301
k4 copies
300
k4 statistic
4.623
k4 best cell
B2
k4 p
0.007
copies statistic max
4.743
copies statistic median
0.764
k4 rank per cell copies at or above
A1
18
A2
197
B1
18
B2
1
judge k4 b2
12
judge reading k4
N BEND ? AND ? FILL ? ? CULL ? SIDE ? MED ? ? GROW DO ? ? ? ? AT
judge copies at or above
14
judge copies max
15
judge copies median
4
judge none
0
word level
yes
judge calls
301
replicated
yes
b2 copies at or above
1
replicating
0237 (S 5.05 at B2, p 0.0099 against 100)
plant power
plant exact recovery
decided lengths at 6 of 8
none
k4 best reading
cell
B2
reading
NBENDJZERANDBCKNFILLBAADWRONNWIIHLGARTNRHHKORCULLHCNCSIDEPXMEDFCKRHALORKYXQTRGROWDOJOWSMSHDVNLYAT
move
two turns cw 70,19 inverse
f6 1
blocked: 0236 found one free alphabet cannot be recovered from the ciphertext alone beyond length 5 with no move
expected total time
541 texts x about 25 s = about 4 core-hours
exhaustive
no
compute seconds
281

How this experiment sits among the others is on the lineage page; its family's open hypotheses are on the families page.

Rendered from the record on 2026-11-05 17:14 UTC; updated after every experiment.
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