Experiment 245
Replication only (program.md: a result outside the copies' range is replicated against fresh controls before anything else). 0244's search unchanged, run at key length 16 alone, both forms, on K4 and 1,000 fresh shuffles (seed 245). In 0244 K4 had 5 fitting pairs at 16/added, the 50 copies at most 4; the 5 share two cipher alphabets (AEOLOTROPISM four times), so the count is also taken as distinct cipher alphabets.
What the method does with the 24 known letters.
In the last test K4the carved letters The 97 letters cut into the copper at the CIA, shown at the top of every experiment page. had slightly more matching alphabet pairs at one key length than any of 50 shuffled copies. That happens by luck now and then when many lengths are looked at, so we count again on 1,000 new shuffles to see how unusual it really is.
Words in the margin are defined on the glossary page.
The carved letters go in at the top; the reading comes out at the bottom.
Replication of 0244's one unusual count: 5 fitting alphabet pairs on K4 at key length 16, more than any of 50 shuffles.
The same search at length 16 on 1,000 fresh shuffles; counted as pairs and as distinct cipher alphabets.
p 0.00899 and 0.03796, above the corrected line 0.000962: not a flag. The readings are junk.
What this experiment was built on, from the lineage page: 8 experiments before it, back to the root of its line. Its number is in bold.
Laid out as the copper carries K4: OBKR ends the line that finishes K3, then three lines of 31. Left, as carved, the 24 known places in accent. Right, the candidate: a known place it gets right is an accent cell, one it misses is outlined. This is the candidate with most known letters right; none passed every gate.
in: the copper, always the same
OBKR ends the line that finishes K3, then three lines of 31
out: the candidate
checked: the known letters in place, and the reading turns back into the copper
The loss of the best candidate, part by part. Zero is solved.
| Known letters missed | 0 of 24, ten points each | 0.00 |
| English | the 73 free letters score -7.91; English text scores -3.6 | 4.31 |
| Key | 267 bits to write it down (key words are cheap, arbitrary letters 4.7 bits each); each 60 beyond 60 costs a point | 3.45 |
| Loss | of 240, the worst possible | 7.76 3.2% |
Redo the method on a few letters with pencil and paper.
The same steps run by the code on the real letters.
Key length 19: known places in the same key slot, and what they ask of the two alphabets (added form)
places known carved the gap on the cipher alphabet must equal the gap on the plain alphabet
26,64 NB QN gap(Q to N) on the cipher alphabet = gap(N to B) on the plain alphabet
27,65 OE QY gap(Q to Y) on the cipher alphabet = gap(O to E) on the plain alphabet
28,66 RR PP gap(P to P) on the cipher alphabet = gap(R to R) on the plain alphabet
29,67 TL RV gap(R to V) on the cipher alphabet = gap(T to L) on the plain alphabet
30,68 HI NT gap(N to T) on the cipher alphabet = gap(H to I) on the plain alphabet
31,69 EN GT gap(G to T) on the cipher alphabet = gap(E to N) on the plain alphabet
32,70 AC KM gap(K to M) on the cipher alphabet = gap(A to C) on the plain alphabet
33,71 SL SZ gap(S to Z) on the cipher alphabet = gap(S to L) on the plain alphabet
34,72 TO SF gap(S to F) on the cipher alphabet = gap(T to O) on the plain alphabet
Every cipher alphabet is filed by its gaps; every plain alphabet looks up the gaps it needs.
Family, key space, the constraint under test, and the clues it reads.
F14.1 (0244): two dictionary keyword alphabets with a free periodic key, exact. One of 52 (length, form) cells had K4 above all 50 copies in its fit count (5 against 4), with readings below the copies' best by English (-7.91 against -7.63). Pre-registered: the cell flags only if K4's count is reached by fewer than 5% of 1,000 fresh shuffles after the 52-cell correction, p < 0.05/52 = 0.00096, on either count.
Written before the run; the result decides it.
Several percent of fresh shuffles reach 5 or more pairs at 16/added: p well above 0.001, not a flag.
The harness's record: candidates, gates, loss, and the negative result this experiment leaves behind.
All 5 candidates, lowest loss first.
16/added: K4 5 pairs (2 cipher alphabets), p 0.00899 / 0.03796 against 1000 fresh shuffles; flag False
What was searched, as the harness recorded it.
KVXCCXHPKGLNYPWRRYQFBEASTNORTHEASTEIBHVVNNPTPYTMBJGPLYWHAVISBUCBERLINCLOCKIHOYTJNLRJRFTDMPDAPYANPCGBDEWKNHHYPZKVEOJYGFEASTNORTHEASTTIFZBBKNCTVFSMVFVMYJGLZAICEDIBERLINCLOCKIKMFSLRMROKBDFJQNUVFDZIKVXCCXZPKHLNYOWRRYQFBEASTNORTHEASTEIBZVVNNPTPFTMBJHPLYWZAVISBACBERLINCLOCKIZOFTJNLRJRFTDMPDAPFANPJVXCAXPNJHLMZLWRRZQFDEASTNORTHEASTEIDPVVMNNTNGTKBHGNYZWPAWISBBCBERLINCLOCKIPOGTHMLRHSFTDKQDANGAMNKVXCCXZPKHLNYOWRRYQFBEASTNORTHEASTEIBZVVNNPTPFTMBJHPLYWZAVISBACBERLINCLOCKIZOFTJNLRJRFTDMPDAPFANPHow this experiment sits among the others is on the lineage page; its family's open hypotheses are on the families page.