Experiment 259

“F13.4h: chase 0237-0239's replicated excess (the table, then a move, key length 2): 1,000 fresh shuffles; the move library split into width-19 reads and the rest; a period-2 statistic of the carved order under the flagged move; known letters counted after”

F13.4h (Alexis, 2026-10-28, #101: chase it rather than note it). 0237 put K4's best reading at B2 (the sculpture's table with a key of 2, then a move; best move 'two turns cw 70,19 inverse', a width-19 read) above all 100 shuffles; 0238 replicated it (1 of 300 at or above); 0239's blind judge put the reading at the edge of chance. The working guess: a property of the carved order at width 19 (like 0056's width-7 doublets), not a message. Here: 0238's frozen search (imported, unchanged) at B1-B2 and A1-A2 on K4 and 1,000 fresh shuffles, run three times per text with the move library cut to (a) every move, (b) width-19 reads only, (c) every move but width-19 reads; a statistic of the moved text itself, without any search (the two period-2 classes' index of coincidence under the flagged move, and the best over width-19 moves); 8 plants (B2 under a width-19 move) through the same cuts; the 24 known letters counted on K4's readings only after the comparison.

revertedstatus
experiment 238parents
2 mintime, all phases
0candidates
0/24known letters
unclocked
1

The experiment method

What the method does with the 24 known letters.

One earlier search found that K4the carved letters The 97 letters cut into the copper at the CIA, shown at the top of every experiment page., put through the sculpture's cipher table with a two-letter key and then read out of a grida grid Writing the message into rows of some width and reading it out in another order, column by column for instance, which shuffles the letters without changing them. 19 letters wide, gives a more English-looking jumble than almost any scrambled copy of K4 does. The reading itself is gibberish. We check whether this comes from the way K4's letters happen to sit at width 19, rather than from a hidden message: we repeat the search with only width-19 grids and without them, against 1,000 new scrambled copiesa shuffled control The same experiment run on the carved letters shuffled into a random order., and we measure that width-19 pattern directly.

Words in the margin are defined on the glossary page.

1.1

The method at work

The carved letters go in at the top; the reading comes out at the bottom.

OBKRUOXOGHULBSOLIFBBWEASTNORTHEASTOTWTQSJQSSEKZZWATJKLUDIAWINFBBERLINCLOCKWGDKZXTJCDIGKUHUAUEKCARthe sculpture's table with a two-letter key, then a move; the search reads K4 and 1,000 shuffles of it with no known letterevery move (27,852): 1 of 1,000 shuffles at or above K4 (p 0.002); one cell per 10 shuffles at or abovewidth-19 reads only (384): 0 of 1,000 shuffles at or above K4 (p 0.001); one cell per 10 shuffles at or aboveevery move but width-19 reads (27,468): 3 of 1,000 shuffles at or above K4 (p 0.004); one cell per 10 shuffles at or aboveno search: odd and even letters' repeat rate after the flagged move, 137 of 1,000 shuffles at or above K4; one cell per 10shuffles at or above K4below K4NBENDJZERANDBCKNFILLBAADWRONNWIIHLGARTNRHHKORCULLHCNCSIDEPXMEDFCKRHALORKYXQTRGROWDOJOWSMSHDVNLYATIN: THE COPPER, ALL 97 LETTERS, THE 24 KNOWN PLACES IN ACCENTOUT: K4'S BEST AT B2 (TWO TURNS CW 70, 19, INVERSE), 3 OF 24 KNOWN LETTERS; JUNK, ABOVE 999 OF 1,000 SHUFFLES
the idea

F13.4h: 0237-0239 found K4 reading better than its shuffles under the table with a two-letter key, then a width-19 move; the guess was a pattern of the carved letters at width 19.

the check

1,000 fresh shuffles; the search repeated with width-19 moves only and without them; a direct measure of the pattern under the flagged move.

the bound

K4 above 999 of 1,000 again, and above 996 even without width-19 moves; the simple pattern measure is ordinary. The guess is wrong as stated; the excess is real and not yet explained (F13.4i).

2

Experiment lineage

What this experiment was built on, from the lineage page: 14 experiments before it, back to the root of its line. Its number is in bold.

kept reverted, in its family's colour ×error or timeout reverted under today's rules built on a parent in the same family built on a parent in another family
3

Best candidate against the known letters

This experiment produced no candidate: the search ruled everything out before a full text was built. Its product is the bounded negative under Result and bounds below.

4

Walkthrough, by hand

Redo the method on a few letters with pencil and paper.

  1. Write K4 in rows 19 letters wide (after first rotating it in a 70-wide grid, as the flagged move does) and read it out the other way.
  2. Split the result into its odd and even letters.
  3. Count how often letters repeat within each half (the index of coincidence): English-like texts repeat more.
  4. Do the same for 1,000 scrambled copies of K4.
  5. If K4 repeats more than nearly all copies, the earlier English-like jumble came from this pattern, not from a message.
the worksheet: the first steps by hand, on squared paper
movescellat or abovepK4's best moveevery moveA1620.063keyword LANGLEY (repeats dropped)A26780.678two turns cw 24,76 inverseB1620.063keyword LANGLEY (repeats dropped)B210.002two turns cw 70,19 inversewidth 19 onlyA13850.386two turns cw 41,19A22690.270two turns cw 35,19 inverseB13850.386two turns cw 41,19B200.001two turns cw 70,19 inversewithout width 19A1600.061keyword LANGLEY (repeats dropped)A26740.674two turns cw 24,76 inverseB1600.061keyword LANGLEY (repeats dropped)B230.004two turns cw 53,41 inverseA: move, then table; B: table, then move; the number is the key length. Plants (B2 under a width-19 move): found 8/8,8/8, 5/8. Known letters in K4's B2 reading: 3 of 24 in message and in carved order.K4 AGAINST 1,000 SHUFFLES, CIPHERTEXT ONLY, BY MOVE LIBRARY AND CELL
5

Worked example, generated

The same steps run by the code on the real letters.

F13.4h: is K4's English-like jumble at B2 a pattern of the carved order at width 19?

  K4 --(two turns cw 70, 19, inverse)--> moved text
  moved text: odd places | even places   -> index of coincidence of each half
  same for 1,000 scrambled copies; K4's rank says whether the width-19 pattern is unusual,
  and the search repeated with and without width-19 moves says whether it carries the excess.
6

Hypothesis, for a cryptanalyst

Family, key space, the constraint under test, and the clues it reads.

F13.4d's excess: K4 under order B (periodic tableau key of length 2 on the sculpture's 8 table classes, then one of 0129's 27,852 moves; ciphertext only, MIX8m) reads above 299 of 300 shuffles. Under order B with key length 2 the reading is the moved text through two fixed substitutions (odd and even places), so a moved text whose two classes are unusually 'monoalphabetic' (high index of coincidence) lets the climb make English-like pairs without any message. If the excess lives only in width-19 reads and the moved text's period-2 IC is as extreme as the B2 score, the excess is a fingerprint of the carved order at width 19, like the width-21 repeats and the width-7 doublet column (04-structure.md), and not a reading. Known letters: the search never reads them (program.md, F13); after the comparison, K4's B2 readings are checked for the 24 letters in message order and in carved order (A2). Clue entries C1(a) (a matrix move then the table, in the other order here), C25 (the width-7/21 statistics).

7

Prediction

Written before the run; the result decides it.

The B2 excess replicates in (a) at p below 0.05 and in (b) width-19 reads only, and vanishes in (c) without them; the flagged move's period-2 index of coincidence on K4 is above at least 95% of the shuffles under the same move. K4's B2 readings put at most 4 of the 24 known letters in place either way. Plants found in (a) and (b), lost in (c). If so, the excess is recorded as a property of the carved order at width 19 and F13.4h is closed.

8

Method

  1. 0238's solve(), imported unchanged, with its key lengths cut to 1-2 (cells A1, A2, B1, B2): per order and length the per-column frequency screen keeps the 30 best (move, class), each climbed, best rescored by MIX8m.
  2. Three move libraries: all 27,852; the width-19 reads (turn cw/ccw 19, columnar 19 either way, two turns with a 19, and their inverses); the rest.
  3. Texts: K4, 1,000 shuffles (seed 2570); 8 plants (Carter test windows, B2 under a random width-19 move and class), 10 own shuffles each.
  4. Per library: K4's B2 rank among the shuffles; plants found when above all own copies at B2.
  5. No search: under 'two turns cw 70,19 inverse' and over every width-19 move, the moved text's mean IC of its odd and even places, K4 against the shuffles.
  6. After: K4's B2 readings' known letters in message order and carved order.
9

Result and bounds

The harness's record: candidates, gates, loss, and the negative result this experiment leaves behind.

0candidates returned
0passed every gate
0/24known letters, best
–lowest loss
nonechampion before

F13.4h: K4 at B2 p all 0.002, width-19 only 0.001, without width 19 0.004 (1,000 shuffles); period-2 IC under the flagged move: 137 of 1,000 at or above; plants found all 8/8, w19 8/8, not19 5/8

What was searched, as the harness recorded it.

item
F13.4h
search reads known letters
no
search
0238's solve(), imported unchanged, key lengths 1-2 (cells A1, A2, B1, B2), MIX8m rescoring
move libraries
all
27,852
w19
384
not19
27,468
k4 copies
1,000
seed
2,570
ranks
all
A1
k4
-537.059
copies at or above
62
p
0.063
move
keyword LANGLEY (repeats dropped)
reading
LDFCTSBAMCWZEIEDAYSHEEATINQLLVRDJEWINKWORNYDFCHUTVISMNBULOOBLNVCONTRYCFXPAIXHIWCJIPZADKJVBPREJIHG
A2
k4
-546.707
copies at or above
678
p
0.678
move
two turns cw 24,76 inverse
reading
HASCIPLYNELEDMLOPNEPPDEKWSIXOROHWFMJWSDAFREYTJORNTCUEJDUFNRMLZIPERUKIYUZPHXWILSHKESTLYQBVUSHOWGYF
B1
k4
-537.059
copies at or above
62
p
0.063
move
keyword LANGLEY (repeats dropped)
reading
LDFCTSBAMCWZEIEDAYSHEEATINQLLVRDJEWINKWORNYDFCHUTVISMNBULOOBLNVCONTRYCFXPAIXHIWCJIPZADKJVBPREJIHG
B2
k4
-507.127
copies at or above
1
p
0.002
move
two turns cw 70,19 inverse
reading
NBENDJZERANDBCKNFILLBAADWRONNWIIHLGARTNRHHKORCULLHCNCSIDEPXMEDFCKRHALORKYXQTRGROWDOJOWSMSHDVNLYAT
w19
A1
k4
-561.675
copies at or above
385
p
0.386
move
two turns cw 41,19
reading
TIJWYNNOSYJVHADXNGLTZVAHOLLEJUAARCCIAFZXKROOTWINLEEFEBDPCBTQKNICHCCRPIYIDWFEJBEINDDWLSMSHRVIPVBUM
A2
k4
-550.673
copies at or above
269
p
0.27
move
two turns cw 35,19 inverse
reading
FJTYBTIBCUSOFWAHINPSENGUUDAYAXTWCTISHEUMWOFNDRNOZGZHEXNLGCMIDAWHUHABATCSHANICORNTMEJVGQDBGRDSXYZK
B1
k4
-561.675
copies at or above
385
p
0.386
move
two turns cw 41,19
reading
TIJWYNNOSYJVHADXNGLTZVAHOLLEJUAARCCIAFZXKROOTWINLEEFEBDPCBTQKNICHCCRPIYIDWFEJBEINDDWLSMSHRVIPVBUM
B2
k4
-507.127
copies at or above
0
p
0.001
move
two turns cw 70,19 inverse
reading
NBENDJZERANDBCKNFILLBAADWRONNWIIHLGARTNRHHKORCULLHCNCSIDEPXMEDFCKRHALORKYXQTRGROWDOJOWSMSHDVNLYAT
not19
A1
k4
-537.059
copies at or above
60
p
0.061
move
keyword LANGLEY (repeats dropped)
reading
LDFCTSBAMCWZEIEDAYSHEEATINQLLVRDJEWINKWORNYDFCHUTVISMNBULOOBLNVCONTRYCFXPAIXHIWCJIPZADKJVBPREJIHG
A2
k4
-546.707
copies at or above
674
p
0.674
move
two turns cw 24,76 inverse
reading
HASCIPLYNELEDMLOPNEPPDEKWSIXOROHWFMJWSDAFREYTJORNTCUEJDUFNRMLZIPERUKIYUZPHXWILSHKESTLYQBVUSHOWGYF
B1
k4
-537.059
copies at or above
60
p
0.061
move
keyword LANGLEY (repeats dropped)
reading
LDFCTSBAMCWZEIEDAYSHEEATINQLLVRDJEWINKWORNYDFCHUTVISMNBULOOBLNVCONTRYCFXPAIXHIWCJIPZADKJVBPREJIHG
B2
k4
-513.262
copies at or above
3
p
0.004
move
two turns cw 53,41 inverse
reading
TZUODASJFPKQIDPPPEYTXEVTAKSVARDODUCAGOXFGXVSNFMTRNKBOMZINGFEBIUPLEOPERHAGHMYGRUZQUXYARRORLOPLEOFV
plants found at B2
all
8, 8
w19
8, 8
not19
5, 8
plants read exactly
all
8
w19
8
not19
0
ic2 flagged move
k4
0.039
copies at or above
137
copies median
0.036
ic2 best width19 move
k4
0.046
copies at or above
323
copies median
0.045
k4 b2 known letters
all
message order
3
carved order
3
w19
message order
3
carved order
3
not19
message order
1
carved order
2
compute seconds
93
exhaustive
no
modal cost estimate
about 1,089 texts x 3 cuts x about 2-3 s: about 2-3 core-hours, about $0.3-1 of Modal credit (about $3.7 left after the margin)

How this experiment sits among the others is on the lineage page; its family's open hypotheses are on the families page.

Rendered from the record on 2026-11-05 17:14 UTC; updated after every experiment.
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