Experiment 152

“F1.6, Hill controls: the same 5,044 single-letter errors on ten scrambled copies, against K4's 257 living Hill settings with a check”

F1.6. 0151 found 257 (variant, Hill setting) pairs alive with at least one check on K4's 5,044 single-letter variants, almost all 5x5 plain with a single check, and no trifid cube. An exact fit only means something against the same test on scrambled copies; here every copy gets the same 5,044 variants and Hill settings.

revertedstatus
experiment 151parents
5 mintime, all phases
0candidates
0/24known letters
unclocked
1

The experiment method

What the method does with the 24 known letters.

One slip in the carved textthe carved letters The 97 letters cut into the copper at the CIA, shown at the top of every experiment page. lets some Hilla Hill cipher A cipher that turns letters into numbers, takes them two, three or four at a time, and mixes each group with a fixed table of numbers.-cipher settings fit the known lettersthe known letters Sanborn has confirmed that positions 22 to 34 of the message read EASTNORTHEAST and positions 64 to 74 read BERLINCLOCK., a few hundred times out of half a million tries. Is that more than a scrambled copy of the carved text manages? We run the identical test on ten scrambled copies.

Words in the margin are defined on the glossary page.

1.1

The method at work

The carved letters go in at the top; the reading comes out at the bottom.

OBKRUOXOGHULBSOLIFBBWEASTNORTHEASTOTWTQSJQSSEKZZWATJKLUDIAWINFBBERLINCLOCKWGDKZXTJCDIGKUHUAUEKCARIN: THE COPPER, ALL 97 LETTERS, THE 24 KNOWN PLACES IN ACCENTHill living settings with a check over all 5,044 single-letter errors: K4 (from 0151) and ten scrambled copies (log scale)log10 count1.01.52.02.53.03.54.0K4 2.41K4 rank 4 of 11OUT: NO READING; K4'S HILL FITS UNDER A SLIP ARE AS COMMON AS A SCRAMBLED COPY'SEASTNORTHEASTBERLINCLOCK
the idea

0151 found a few hundred Hill settings that fit K4 once one carved letter is changed. That only matters if scrambled copies manage fewer.

the check

The same 5,044 errors of ten scrambled copies through the same exact Hill test.

the bound

Copies give 30-6384 (all 5x5 with one check); K4's 257 ranks 4 of 11: chance.

2

Best candidate against the known letters

This experiment produced no candidate: the search ruled everything out before a full text was built. Its product is the bounded negative in section 7.

3

Walkthrough, by hand

Redo the method on a few letters with pencil and paper.

  1. Shuffle the carved letters into a new order.
  2. Make every single-letter error of the shuffled copy, as for K4.
  3. Run the exact Hill test on each and count living settings with a check.
  4. Compare with K4's count.
the worksheet: the first steps by hand, on squared paper
HILL LIVING SETTINGS WITH A CHECK, OVER ALL SINGLE-LETTER ERRORSrankcounttext16384copy 82366copy 63269copy 14257K45243copy 36225copy 57208copy 98123copy 2987copy 71082copy 101130copy 4Every count is 5x5 plain Hill with a single check: a5x5 matrix row has five unknowns, so a row with sixequations leaves one check, met by chance one time in26.
4

Worked example, generated

The same steps run by the code on the real letters.

the errors tried, for every place of the copper:

  wrong:   place 21 W -> each of the other 25 letters
  missing: place 21 deleted, the rest moves left, a filler at the end
  extra:   each letter inserted before place 21, the last letter pushed out

each variant through Hill 2x2-5x5 (plain, affine, every alignment, four numberings) and trifid (periods 2-15, every offset)
5

Hypothesis, for a cryptanalyst

Family, key space, the constraint under test, and the clues it reads.

As 0151 (0105's Hill decider, sizes 2-5 plain and affine, every alignment, four numberings; a variant is a carved letter changed, deleted or inserted with the message numbering fixed). Ten shuffled coppers (seed 152). Statistic fixed before the run: alive-with-checks counts per size; K4's 0151 counts against the coppers' range; K4 above every copper in a size stops the queue for replication.

6

Prediction

Written before the run; the result decides it.

Each copper has a similar count (a few hundred, mostly 5x5 plain with one check); K4's 257 lies inside their range in every size.

7

Method

  1. Ten scrambled copies.
  2. Each copy's 5,044 variants through 0105's Hill settings.
  3. Counts per size against K4's.
8

Result and bounds

The harness's record: candidates, gates, loss, and the negative result this experiment leaves behind.

0candidates returned
0passed every gate
0/24known letters, best
–lowest loss
nonechampion before

copies alive-with-checks totals [269, 123, 243, 30, 225, 366, 87, 6384, 208, 82]; K4 (0151) 257, rank 4 of 11

What was searched, as the harness recorded it.

family
Hill 2-5 on every single-letter error of ten scrambled copies (0151's test)
copies done
10
controls total alive with checks
269, 123, 243, 30, 225, 366, 87, 6,384, 208, 82
k4 total 0151
257
controls by size
5x5 plain
269, 123, 243, 30, 225, 366, 87, 6,384, 208, 82
k4 above every copper
no
k4 rank
4
seconds
260
controls
10 shuffled coppers (seed 152), the 5,044 variants of each

How this experiment sits among the others is on the lineage page; its family's open hypotheses are on the families page.

Rendered from the record on 2026-10-18 12:26 UTC; updated after every experiment.
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