Experiment 260

“F13.4i: what carries K4's B2 excess? K4's 96 cyclic rotations, its reversal and 300 block-shuffled versions through 0238's search, against 500 fresh shuffles; planted messages rotated the same way”

F13.4i (Alexis, #101: chase it). 0259 replicated K4's excess at B2 (the sculpture's table with a two-letter key, then a move) against 1,000 fresh shuffles, p 0.002, and showed it does not need width-19 moves (p 0.004 without them). Here the question is what in K4 carries it. A cyclic rotation keeps every adjacency of the carved letters (the width-7 doublet column and the width-21 repeats move together) but changes every place; the reversal keeps adjacency mirrored; cutting K4 into blocks of 4, 7 or 12 and shuffling the blocks keeps structure inside a block only. A planted B2 message is rotated the same way as a positive control: its excess should vanish when rotated.

revertedstatus
experiment 259parents
79 stime, all phases
0candidates
0/24known letters
unclocked
1

The experiment method

What the method does with the 24 known letters.

K4the carved letters The 97 letters cut into the copper at the CIA, shown at the top of every experiment page. reads a little more like English than almost any scrambled copy of it under one particular two-step cipher, though the reading itself is gibberish. Is that because of where K4's letters are, which a hidden message would explain, or because of which letters sit next to each other, which a message would not need? We slide K4 around in a circle (every letter keeps its neighbours but changes its place), flip it, and chop it into pieces we shuffle, and see which versions keep the effect. A hidden test message treated the same way should lose it.

Words in the margin are defined on the glossary page.

1.1

The method at work

The carved letters go in at the top; the reading comes out at the bottom.

OBKRUOXOGHULBSOLIFBBWEASTNORTHEASTOTWTQSJQSSEKZZWATJKLUDIAWINFBBERLINCLOCKWGDKZXTJCDIGKUHUAUEKCAReach version through the same search (the table with a two-letter key, then any of 27,852 moves), scored against 500 shuffles of K4K4 itself: above all 500 shuffles. Its 96 rotations, one cell each, solid where above 95% of the shuffles: 3 of 96planted message 1 (two turns cw 94,19 inverse): its 24 rotations, solid where above 95% of the shuffles: 24 of 24planted message 2 (two turns cw 19,53 inverse): its 24 rotations, solid where above 95% of the shuffles: 24 of 24planted message 3 (two turns cw 19,34 inverse): its 24 rotations, solid where above 95% of the shuffles: 24 of 24above 95% of the shufflesnotK4 reversed: above 74% of the shuffles; K4 in shuffled blocks of 4, 7, 12: above 95% in 4%, 5%, 11% of 100 eachEASTNORTHEASTBERLINCLOCKIN: THE COPPER, ALL 97 LETTERS, THE 24 KNOWN PLACES IN ACCENTOUT: NO READING; A PLANTED MESSAGE KEEPS ITS EXCESS WHEN ROTATED, K4 LOSES IT: NOT A MESSAGE UNDER THIS CIPHER
the idea

F13.4i: K4 beats its shuffles under the table with a two-letter key, then a move. Does the effect follow K4's letters around, as a hidden message would?

the check

K4 rotated 96 ways, reversed, and cut into shuffled blocks; three planted messages under the same cipher rotated 24 ways each.

the bound

Every rotation of every planted message stays above 95% of the shuffles; only 3 of K4's 96 rotations do. The excess belongs to K4's exact order against this search, not to a message enciphered this way.

2

Experiment lineage

What this experiment was built on, from the lineage page: 15 experiments before it, back to the root of its line. Its number is in bold.

kept reverted, in its family's colour ×error or timeout reverted under today's rules built on a parent in the same family built on a parent in another family
3

Best candidate against the known letters

This experiment produced no candidate: the search ruled everything out before a full text was built. Its product is the bounded negative under Result and bounds below.

4

Walkthrough, by hand

Redo the method on a few letters with pencil and paper.

  1. Write K4 around a circle and start reading it one place later: OBKRU... becomes BKRUO...O.
  2. Every letter keeps its neighbours, but every letter has moved one place.
  3. Run the same search on this rotated text and compare its score with 500 scrambled copies of K
    1. Repeat for all 96 rotations, for K4 read backwards, and for K4 cut into pieces whose order is shuffled.
  4. If the rotations score as high as K4, the effect comes from which letters sit together, not from a message written at exact places.
the worksheet: the first steps by hand, on squared paper
textversionsB2 percentileabove 95%K41100.0%K4 rotated96median 46%3 of 96K4 reversed174%K4 in blocks of 41004 of 100K4 in blocks of 71005 of 100K4 in blocks of 1210011 of 100plant 1 rotated24unrotated 100%24 of 24plant 2 rotated24unrotated 100%24 of 24plant 3 rotated24unrotated 100%24 of 24Pre-registered: rotations as extreme as K4 means a property of the carved letters; rotations at chance means positional.The plants show a real message under this cipher survives rotation (the move library absorbs a cyclic shift), so K4'sloss of the excess under rotation speaks against a message here.THE B2 EXCESS UNDER ROTATION, REVERSAL AND BLOCK SHUFFLES, AGAINST 500 SHUFFLES OF K4
5

Worked example, generated

The same steps run by the code on the real letters.

F13.4i: rotate K4 and see whether its B2 excess survives.

  K4         OBKRUOXOGHULBSOLIFBBWFLRVQQPRN...
  rotated 1  BKRUOXOGHULBSOLIFBBWFLRVQQPRNG...
  reversed   RACKEUAUHUKGIDCJTXZKDGWKPFZMTT...

  each through the same search (the table with a two-letter key, then any of 27,852 moves),
  each scored against 500 scrambled copies of K4. A message at exact places loses its excess when rotated.
6

Hypothesis, for a cryptanalyst

Family, key space, the constraint under test, and the clues it reads.

F13.4d/h: order B (periodic tableau key of length 2 on the sculpture's 8 table classes, then one of 0129's 27,852 moves), ciphertext only, 0238's frequency screen, climb and MIX8m rescoring. If K4's B2 excess comes from local structure of the carved letters that any arrangement of them by blocks keeps (letters that sit well together), rotations and large-block shuffles stay extreme; if it comes from a message enciphered at these exact places, only K4 in its own order is extreme, as only the unrotated plant is. Pre-registered: share of rotations above the shuffles' 95th percentile at B2 at least 0.5 means a position-free property (the excess carries no reading, F13.4h closed as a property of the carved letters); at most 0.1 means positional, and the reading is chased (judge, known words on the intermediate text). Clue entries C25 (the width-7/21 statistics), C1(a).

7

Prediction

Written before the run; the result decides it.

Most rotations as extreme as K4 (share above the 95th percentile at least 0.5) and the reversal too: a property of the carved letters' neighbourhoods, kept by blocks of 7 and 12 more than by blocks of 4. The plants lose their excess when rotated (rotated plants at the shuffles' level). Zero candidates.

8

Method

  1. Texts: K4; its rotations by 1-96 places; its reversal; 100 block shuffles each for blocks of 4, 7 and 12 (seed 2601); 500 fresh shuffles (seed 2600) as the reference; 3 planted B2 messages (Carter test windows, a random width-19 move and table class, key of 2) and 24 rotations of each (every fourth).
  2. Each text through 0238's solve(), unchanged, at cells A1, A2, B1, B2 (every move).
  3. Per text its B2 score's percentile among the 500 shuffles.
  4. Verdict by the pre-registered shares for the rotations; the blocks and the reversal reported beside it.
9

Result and bounds

The harness's record: candidates, gates, loss, and the negative result this experiment leaves behind.

0candidates returned
0passed every gate
0/24known letters, best
–lowest loss
nonechampion before

F13.4i: K4 B2 percentile 1.000; rotations above the 95th percentile 0.03 (median 0.46); reversal 0.736; blocks of 4/7/12 above 95th 0.04/0.05/0.11; plants unrotated 1.00, 1.00, 1.00, rotated above 95th 1.00, 1.00, 1.00; verdict positional

What was searched, as the harness recorded it.

item
F13.4i
search reads known letters
no
search
0238's solve(), imported unchanged, every move (27,852), cells A1, A2, B1, B2, MIX8m rescoring
reference
500 fresh shuffles of K4 (seed 2600)
q95 by cell
A1
-536.95
A2
-526.39
B1
-536.95
B2
-524.85
k4 percentile by cell
A1
0.948
A2
0.314
B1
0.948
B2
1
rotations share above 95th B2
0.031
rotations percentile B2
0.962, 0.492, 0.492, 0.366, 0.912, 0.118, 0.412, 0.704, 0.806, 0.39, 0.572, 0.288, 0.022, 0.872, 0.704, 0.46, 0.586, 0.062, 0.46, 0.796, 0.618, 0.99, 0.888, 0.348, 0.608, 0.088, 0.288, 0.58, 0.132, 0.25, 0.584, 0.46, 0.258, 0.544, 0.222, 0.706, 0.428, 0.536, 0.154, 0.538, 0.08, 0.042, 0.228, 0.732, 0.694, 0.932, 0.656, 0.878, 0.924, 0.372, 0.52, 0.224, 0.874, 0.6, 0.31, 0.758, 0.724, 0.988, 0.39, 0.722, 0.864, 0.146, 0.88, 0.65, 0.534, 0.3, 0.362, 0.326, 0.052, 0.948, 0.3, 0.646, 0.022, 0.39, 0.846, 0.576, 0.884, 0.104, 0.298, 0.048, 0.438, 0.334, 0.282, 0.408, 0.818, 0.722, 0.426, 0.198, 0.46, 0.466, 0.896, 0.332, 0.002, 0.412, 0.118, 0.864
rotations median percentile B2
0.463
top rotations B2
  1. rot
    22
    percentile
    0.99
    move
    two turns cw 64,23 inverse
  2. rot
    58
    percentile
    0.988
    move
    two turns cw 14,27
  3. rot
    1
    percentile
    0.962
    move
    two turns cw 37,17 inverse
  4. rot
    70
    percentile
    0.948
    move
    two turns cw 20,63
  5. rot
    46
    percentile
    0.932
    move
    two turns cw 48,11
  6. rot
    49
    percentile
    0.924
    move
    two turns cw 14,31
  7. rot
    5
    percentile
    0.912
    move
    two turns cw 41,17
  8. rot
    91
    percentile
    0.896
    move
    two turns cw 50,29 inverse
  9. rot
    23
    percentile
    0.888
    move
    two turns cw 40,76 inverse
  10. rot
    77
    percentile
    0.884
    move
    two turns cw 20,90
reversal percentile B2
0.736
reversal move
two turns cw 40,54 inverse
blocks share above 95th B2
4
0.04
7
0.05
12
0.11
plants
plant0
move
two turns cw 94,19 inverse
unrotated percentile
1
rotations above 95th
1
plant1
move
two turns cw 19,53 inverse
unrotated percentile
1
rotations above 95th
1
plant2
move
two turns cw 19,34 inverse
unrotated percentile
1
rotations above 95th
1
verdict
positional
k4 b2 move
two turns cw 70,19 inverse
k4 b2 reading
NBENDJZERANDBCKNFILLBAADWRONNWIIHLGARTNRHHKORCULLHCNCSIDEPXMEDFCKRHALORKYXQTRGROWDOJOWSMSHDVNLYAT
texts
973
compute seconds
48
exhaustive
no
modal cost estimate
about 1,072 texts x about 1-2 s: well under $0.1 of Modal credit

How this experiment sits among the others is on the lineage page; its family's open hypotheses are on the families page.

Rendered from the record on 2026-11-05 17:14 UTC; updated after every experiment.
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