“D1b: design 2's power per run for two free alphabets (Quagmire IV), 24 clean and 24 Sanborn-style plants at F1.2's sampled lengths 13 and 16, every run's best recorded”
D1b (issue #77). 0229 measured design 2's power per run for one free alphabet and D1 qualified a one-run decider (Alexis, 2026-10-28, #100). Here the same measurement for two free alphabets with 0144's compiled tempering, unchanged: F1.2's sampled lengths 13 and 16, 24 clean and 24 Sanborn-style plants each, 6 kept-place copies per plant, ten full runs per text with each run's best recorded. Two lengths so the power can be checked for sameness across the class before one measured power is used for every two-alphabet setting (F1.4's 1,346 two-alphabet settings, F1.2 13).
For the hardest version of the cipher, with two scrambled alphabets, our search tool's success rate was measured on only a handful of hidden test messages, and the counts disagreed between tries. Here we hide 96 test messages, half plain book English and half written Sanborn's way, and count how many the tool finds after one search, two, and so on up to ten. If one search finds about as many as ten, the tool becomes about thirty times cheaper, and two thousand untested settings come within reach.
1.1
The method at work
The carved letters go in at the top; the reading comes out at the bottom.
the idea
D1b: the cheaper judge for the hardest version, two scrambled alphabets; does one search find as many hidden messages as ten?
the check
96 planted messages, 6 scrambled copies each, ten searches per text, every search's best kept; 180 s per text for ten.
the bound
One search finds 63, ten find 71: one is not enough; four (66) are within 5. Power the same at 13 and 16 (30 and 33 of 48 at one search).
2
Experiment lineage
What this experiment was built on, from the lineage page: 17 experiments before it, back to the root of its line. Its number is in bold.
keptreverted, in its family's colour×error or timeoutreverted under today's rulesbuilt on a parent in the same familybuilt on a parent in another family
3
Best candidate against the known letters
This experiment produced no candidate: the search ruled everything out before a full text was built. Its product is the bounded negative under Result and bounds below.
4
Walkthrough, by hand
Redo the method on a few letters with pencil and paper.
Hide a test message under two shuffled alphabets (one for plain letters, one for cipher letters) and a key of 13 (or 16) numbers.
Make six scrambled copies of its ciphertext that keep the carved letters at the 24 known places.
Run the tempering search ten times on each of the seven texts, writing down the best score after each run.
After run r, is the hidden message's best above all six copies' bests?
Over 96 hidden messages, the share found after r runs is the tool's power at that cost.
the worksheet: the first steps by hand, on squared paper
5
Worked example, generated
The same steps run by the code on the real letters.
D1b measures how fast design 2 finds a planted message under two free alphabets. For one plant and its six copies:
run 1 2 3 ... 10
plant best of runs 1..r
copies best of runs 1..r, each
found at r when the plant's best is above every copy's best.
Over 96 plants at key lengths 13 and 16: one run qualifies when it finds within 5 of what ten runs find.
6
Hypothesis, for a cryptanalyst
Family, key space, the constraint under test, and the clues it reads.
F1.5 design 2 (0143, 0144, 0146) closed F1.2's lengths 8, 13 and 16 on power from 4-5 clean plants each; 0226 and 0228 redrew L13 on Sanborn-style plants (9/12, 8/12) and on clean ones (2/5): two-alphabet power is in doubt and rests on too few plants. Two questions on one set of climbs, as 0229 for one alphabet: (1) design 2's ten-run power at 13 and 16 on clean and Sanborn-style text (judge bench classes xstops, k123, sub3; A6, C17, C19), 24 plants per class and length; (2) the power of the first r runs, r = 1-10. D1's rule (Alexis, #100): a cheaper decider qualifies when its power pooled over the cells (here 96 plants) is within 5 of the reference on the same plants. Sameness: the one-run power at 13 and at 16 within 5 of 48 of each other. Clue entries C27(c) (two alphabets: Sanborn's 'slightly different' tableau on both sides).
7
Prediction
Written before the run; the result decides it.
Ten-run power at 13 about 0.6 clean and 0.6 Sanborn-style, at 16 a little higher (fewer checks keep less of the copies' freedom out, but longer columns read better). As for one alphabet, power flat in the number of runs: one run within 5 of 96 of ten, so a one-run decider qualifies for two alphabets; 13 and 16 within 5 of 48. Zero candidates.
8
Method
Per length (13, 16): 24 clean plants (0144's plant4: a Carter window with the known words, two random alphabets, a random key) and 24 Sanborn-style (0226's class texts, two arms: 8 xstops, 8 K1-K3 windows, 8 with three letters changed), each with an exact witness (0123's decider through 0144's witness4, 20 s alarm, redrawn if slow).
Six own copies per plant: the carved letters at the 24 known places kept, the other 73 shuffled (0143's copies, fit by construction), started from the plant's witness.
Every text climbed by 0144's compiled tempering, unchanged: 10 runs of 16 replicas x 625 rounds x 1000 moves, each run's best recorded.
Power at r = 1-10 by length and class: a plant is found at r when the best of its first r runs is strictly above the best of the first r runs of each own copy (null 1/7).
9
Result and bounds
The harness's record: candidates, gates, loss, and the negative result this experiment leaves behind.
0candidates returned
0passed every gate
0/24known letters, best
–lowest loss
nonechampion before
D1b: pooled power by runs {1: 63, 2: 64, 3: 64, 4: 66, 5: 66, 6: 67, 7: 72, 8: 71, 9: 72, 10: 71}; one run 63/96 against ten 71/96; one run at 13 30/48, at 16 33/48; qualifying runs [4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]; one-run decider does not qualify
What was searched, as the harness recorded it.
item
D1b
decider
F1.5 design 2 for two free alphabets: 0144's compiled tempering (16 replicas x 625 rounds x 1000 moves per run), unchanged
lengths
13, 16
plants per class
24
own copies
6
null per plant
1/7
copies
kept-place copies (0143): the carved letters at the 24 known places kept, the other 73 shuffled
runs
10
power table
13/1
clean
16, 24
messy
14, 24
13/2
clean
16, 24
messy
15, 24
13/3
clean
16, 24
messy
14, 24
13/4
clean
15, 24
messy
15, 24
13/5
clean
16, 24
messy
15, 24
13/6
clean
15, 24
messy
15, 24
13/7
clean
16, 24
messy
16, 24
13/8
clean
15, 24
messy
16, 24
13/9
clean
16, 24
messy
16, 24
13/10
clean
16, 24
messy
16, 24
16/1
clean
17, 24
messy
16, 24
16/2
clean
17, 24
messy
16, 24
16/3
clean
18, 24
messy
16, 24
16/4
clean
19, 24
messy
17, 24
16/5
clean
18, 24
messy
17, 24
16/6
clean
20, 24
messy
17, 24
16/7
clean
21, 24
messy
19, 24
16/8
clean
20, 24
messy
20, 24
16/9
clean
20, 24
messy
20, 24
16/10
clean
19, 24
messy
20, 24
pooled power by runs
1
63
2
64
3
64
4
66
5
66
6
67
7
72
8
71
9
72
10
71
reference ten runs pooled
71, 96
power by class ten runs
13/clean
16, 24
13/xstops
6, 8
13/k123
7, 8
13/sub3
3, 8
16/clean
19, 24
16/xstops
7, 8
16/k123
8, 8
16/sub3
5, 8
qualifying runs within 5 of 96
4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
one run pooled
63, 96
one run by length
13
30
16
33
same power 13 16 within 5
yes
d1b reached one run
no
cost factor per setting one run
31.7
seconds per text ten runs
180
texts
672
compute seconds
3,886
exhaustive
no
modal cost estimate
672 texts x about 207 s (0228's L13 time for ten runs) = about 39 core-hours, about $2 of Modal credit
How this experiment sits among the others is on the lineage page; its family's open hypotheses are on the families page.
Rendered from the record on 2026-11-05 17:14 UTC; updated after every experiment.