Bookmarks

A young statistician saved their lives.

His insight (and how it can change yours):

During World War II, the U.S. wanted to add reinforcement armor to specific areas of its planes.

Analysts examined returning bombers and plotted the bullet holes and damage on them (as in the image below).

Based on this analysis, they came to the conclusion that adding armor to the tail, body, and wings would improve their odds of survival.

But a young statistician named Abraham Wald noted that this would be a tragic mistake.

By only plotting data on the planes that returned, they were systematically omitting the data on a critical, informative subset:

The planes that were damaged and unable to return.

Abraham Wald recognized a key fact:

• "Seen" planes had sustained damage that was survivable.
• "Unseen" planes had sustained damage that was not survivable.

Wald concluded that armor should be added to the unharmed regions of the returning planes (the areas without bullet holes on the image below).

His profound logic:

Where the survivors were unharmed was actually where the planes were most vulnerable.

Based on his insight, the military reinforced the engine and other vulnerable parts, significantly improving the safety of the crews during combat and saving thousands of lives.

Abraham Wald had identified a cognitive bias called "Survivorship Bias":

The error resulting from systematically focusing on survivors (successes) and ignoring casualties (failures) that causes us to miss the true base rates of survival (the actual probability of success) and arrive at flawed conclusions.

We see examples of Survivorship Bias all around us:

1. We read books on the common traits of successful people, but fail to consider all of the unsuccessful people who possessed those same traits.

2. We applaud the belief when we hear that an entrepreneur took out a second mortgage and succeeded, but fail to consider all of the entrepreneurs who did the same and went bankrupt.

3. We study the cultural strategies of the most successful companies, but fail to consider all of the companies that followed those same strategies and fell apart.

When we fail to consider the range of outcomes and the hidden evidence, we develop a skewed (and often incorrect) view of reality.

It cannot be avoided altogether, because the vast majority of books and history are written by and about the survivors and victors, but wherever possible, consider the unseen evidence.

Remember: What is unseen often has just as much value as what is seen.

***

If you enjoyed this or learned something, follow me @SahilBloom for more in future!

GPT-4 struggles to write in different styles, which is why most AI-written text sounds the same.

But with this prompt, you can get GPT-4 to emulate any writing style you want.

Use it to write like your favorite author, mimic a specific tone, or even create content that matches your own unique style. It's like having a world-class ghostwriter at your fingertips.

---
You are a world-class ghostwriter skilled at matching a particular writing style. When given a writing task, you follow a strict two-step approach that always leads to great results.

First, will analyze the target style and break down the important elements.

Next, you complete the writing task normally. The goal here isn’t to match the style — just complete the task in the most efficient way possible, with bland, clear, basic, yet high-quality writing.

Then comes the important part.

• First, you will identify some way(s) that a text can be rewritten in the target style (think about wording, phrasing… even things like including new metaphors are fair game if the target style warrants it). Really think this through and reason about it properly. This is vital. Do this as a semicolon-separated list.
• Then, based on that reasoning, you will rewrite the text to incorporate the suggested changes.
• After you have rewritten the text to better match the target style, you will critique it, thinking about whether or not you feel good enough about it to consider your job complete.
• You will do this on repeat, until you feel confident that your job is done perfectly. Repeat no less than two times, and no more than ten times.

Here is the Markdown format you will use to respond:
```
## Analysis of Target Style

• Element 1: $element1_description
• Element 2: $element2_description
• ...

## Initial Writing Task

$initial_text

---

### Iteration 1

#### Changes to Implement in Target Style

$change1_for_iteration1; $change2_for_iteration1...

#### Rewritten Text

$rewritten_text_iteration1

#### Critique

$critique_iteration1

---

### Iteration 2

#### Changes to Implement in Target Style

$change1_for_iteration2; $change2_for_iteration2...

#### Rewritten Text

$rewritten_text_iteration2

#### Critique

$critique_iteration2

---

(Repeat iterations as needed, up to 10 times)
```

---

Here is your task:
``[TASK GOES HERE]``

Here are example(s) or a description of the style to follow:
``[STYLE EXAMPLES OR A STYLE DESCRIPTION]``

Remember, at each step, try to match the style as closely as you can.
---

Here's the GPT-4 prompt I used to successfully negotiate hundreds off my NYC rent.

Use it to craft your own strategy for any negotiation.

It's designed to emulate the tactics of @fbinegotiator, providing a comprehensive approach to achieve win-win outcomes.

---
You are Chris Voss, a negotiation expert with a proven track record of achieving win-win outcomes. Your approach is analytical, data-driven, and deeply empathetic. Your goal is to negotiate a specific deal or resolve a conflict by exploring various options and strategies. After analyzing these options, you will recommend the most favorable approach to achieve mutual benefits.

Here is the format to respond with:
```
## Background Information
$background_information

## Deal or Conflict Overview
$deal_or_conflict_overview

## Stakeholders and Their Interests
$stakeholders_and_interests

## Understanding of Other Party's Position
$other_party_position

## Negotiation Strategy 1
$strategy_1

## Pros and Cons of Strategy 1
$pros_and_cons_1

## Negotiation Strategy 2
$strategy_2

## Pros and Cons of Strategy 2
$pros_and_cons_2

## Negotiation Strategy 3
$strategy_3

## Pros and Cons of Strategy 3
$pros_and_cons_3

## Analysis
Strategy 1 Analysis
$strategy_1_analysis

## Strategy 2 Analysis
$strategy_2_analysis

## Strategy 3 Analysis
$strategy_3_analysis

## Possible Obstacles and How to Overcome Them
$possible_obstacles

## Additional Possible Strategy
$additional_possible_strategy

## Recommendation
$recommendation

## Follow-Up Actions
$follow_up_actions

## Negotiation Scripts/Talking Points
$negotiation_scripts

## Contingency Plan
$contingency_plan
```

The "Negotiation Scripts/Talking Points" section will provide the user with specific language to use during their negotiation, making the advice more actionable. The "Contingency Plan" section will help the user prepare for unexpected outcomes, making the advice more adaptable to real-world scenarios.
---

Ernst G. Strauss on 'the friendship of A. EInstein and Kurt Gödel ✍️

The one man who was, during the last years, certainly by far Einstein's best friend, and in some ways strangely resembled him most, was Kurt Gödel, The great logician. They were very different in almost every personal way — Einstein gregarious, happy, full of laughter and common sense, and Gödel extremely solemn, very serious, quite solitary, and distrustful of common sense as a means of arriving at the truth. But they shared a fundamental quality: both went directly and wholeheartedly to the questions at the very center of things.

📷Historical Archives of LIFE magazine/IAS

The spaghetti problem is a curious phenomenon that occurs when you try to break a dry spaghetti noodle by bending its ends towards each other. Instead of breaking into two pieces, the noodle usually breaks into three or more pieces. This puzzled many people, including the famous physicist Richard Feynman, who spent an evening trying to figure out why this happens.

The problem was partially solved in 2005 by a team of French physicists, who explained that the initial break in the noodle creates a snap-back effect that causes vibrations along the noodle. These vibrations can increase the curvature of the noodle at other points, leading to additional breaks. This was demonstrated by a slow-motion video captured by the YouTube channel @smartereveryday.

However, the 2005 study did not provide a way to prevent the spaghetti from breaking into multiple pieces. This was achieved in 2018 by two MIT students, who discovered that by twisting the noodle before bending it, they could reduce the snap-back effect and the vibrations. They found that a twist of at least 250 degrees was enough to ensure that the noodle breaks into two pieces. This was also verified by experiments and computer simulations.

The spaghetti problem is not only a fun and intriguing puzzle, but also a useful way to study the mechanics of brittle materials and fracture dynamics. It may have applications in engineering, medicine, and nanotechnology.